Senior Day at Assembly Hall is a sight to see, and Michigan will get to witness it for themselves when the Wolverines take on the Indiana Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon.
The Hoosiers and Wolverines enter Sunday as two of the seven teams tied at 11-8 in Big Ten play, and both will be hoping to secure the No. 2 seed (and the byes that come along with it) in the conference tournament. For Michigan, it’s also about getting a big win to ensure they strengthen a resume that, at the moment, sees them on the fringe of March Madness.
The Hoosiers are well-rested, and will look to rebound from a brutal loss at home on Tuesday night while sending their seniors out with a victory. Can Trayce Jackson-Davis & Co. continue to dominate this rivalry, or will Hunter Dickinson & Co. spoil the party? Find out in our Michigan vs Indiana college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, March 5.
Michigan vs Indiana best odds
Michigan vs Indiana picks and predictions
Sunday will be an emotional day for Indiana fans, as they watch Trayce Jackson-Davis emerge from the tunnel for the final time. The senior big man ranks among the five top scorers in school history, and is among the top contenders for National Player of the Year and the Naismith Award. He’s been Indiana’s rock this season, averaging 20.3 ppg and hauling in just over 11 rebounds per game. He’s also improved his passing, with nearly four assists per game.
“TJD” will want to forget his team’s performance on Tuesday night, but the loss to Iowa certainly wasn’t his fault. The 90-68 defeat was Indiana’s worst home defeat in more than five years, but Jackson-Davis filled the stat sheet with 26 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, and four steals on the night.
He’s also had success against Michigan and Hunter Dickinson. Last year, the two matched up just once during the regular season, and Jackson-Davis managed only 17 points. But he also took just 13 shots in that contest, and had low usage as Michigan looked to take him out of the game. That changed when they met in the Big Ten Tournament, where TJD put 24 points on Dickinson.
They faced off once again last month, and the Hoosiers pulled off a one-point win over the Wolverines in which they held Michigan without a point over the final five minutes. Once again, TJD went off, as he scored 28 points and took 23 shots. Michigan focused heavily on taking away Indiana’s shooters on the outside, but failed to slow down freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino.
Michigan will have to focus even more on Hood-Schifino in this one. He had a career game in Indiana’s upset win at Purdue last weekend, dropping 35 points and grabbing seven rebounds. He was off against Iowa, but will look to repeat his 21-point performance from the first matchup with the Wolverines.
Having multiple players that Michigan must worry about means that Dickinson is likely going to be left alone against TJD. That’s bad news for Dickinson, who just three days ago played 46 minutes in a double-overtime defeat at Illinois.
Jackson-Davis has been getting better, while Dickinson’s been regressing from last season, especially on defense. Only two players in the Big Ten average more than TJD’s 12 ppg from post-up positions. He will be involved in the pick-and-roll game as well, which should open things up for a few lobs.
Jackson-Davis is rested, and will be amped up on Senior Day as he sits just 56 points behind Don Schlundt for third in the school’s career points rankings. Look for him to go out with a bang, and score at least 24 points in his final game at Assembly Hall.
My best bet: Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 23.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
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Michigan vs Indiana spread analysis
Michigan continues to be without Jaelin Llewellyn, who was lost for the season in December. The guard is joined on the sidelines by Isaiah Barnes, who has been ruled out indefinitely for undisclosed reasons.
The Wolverines have won just three of nine games away from home this season, and lost in double overtime to Illinois on Thursday night in a game they had in hand with just two minutes left in the first overtime.
Michigan ranks 314th in the nation in assists per basket, but is outstanding at limiting its opponents to just one shot per trip. The Wolverines have also covered the spread in each of their last four games, and in each of their last four against teams with a winning record.
It was announced on Saturday that point guard Xavier Johnson will not return for Indiana this season, following a foot injury back in December. However, guard Anthony Leal could play on Saturday after dealing with an ankle injury, while big man Logan Duncomb continues to be out.
The Hoosiers are sliding a bit, as their win over Purdue was just one of two they’ve had in their last five games. They had won eight of nine prior to that. While they are 14-2 at home this season, they’ve covered the spread in just one of their last five games.
They rank in the Top 100 in nearly every offensive category, and their 49.1% from the floor is eighth-best in the country.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings between the two teams, but the Covers Consensus is backing that trend to come to an end. 55% of the public picks are selecting Indiana to cover the 4.5-point spread, while 60% of the money leaders are also behind the Hoosiers.
The Senior Day crowd should put the Hoosiers over the top in this one.
Michigan vs Indiana Over/Under analysis
Michigan has seen the Over hit in four of its last five games played on Sunday. Three of its last four games have also gone Over, which includes a pair of overtime contests in its last three outings.
Indiana is on a run of three straight games that have gone Over, after seeing four in a row go below the total. Five of its last seven games have gone lower than 144.5 points, the projected total for this game. That said, the Over is 5-1 in Indiana’s last six Sunday games, and is also 5-1 in the last six games the Hoosiers have played against teams with a sub-.400 record away from home.
The Over is the pick for the Covers Consensus, with 60% of the public picks and 63% of the money leaders coming in for 145 or more points to be scored. However, their earlier meeting this season saw just 123 points put on the board, as Michigan didn’t score in the final five minutes of the contest.
Michigan vs Indiana betting trend to know
The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with a winning % above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Indiana.
Michigan vs Indiana game info
| Location: | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
