The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the LSU Tigers in the second round of the SEC Tournament bracket on Thursday afternoon. There's plenty at stake in this clash, with the reeling Bulldogs needing a win in the March Madness odds, while the Tigers have to make an improbable deep run in this tourney if they want to even have a chance at the Big Dance.
Conference Tournament odds have the Bulldogs as 5-point favorites for this contest with the Over/Under at 144.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. LSU on March 14.
Mississippi State vs LSU best odds
Mississippi State vs LSU picks and predictions
These teams last faced off on February 24, with the Mississippi State Bulldogs embarrassing the LSU Tigers by a score of 87-67 in Baton Rouge.
Since that loss, these teams have gone in completely opposite directions. The Bulldogs closed out the regular season going 0-4 straight up and against the spread, while the Tigers won three of their last four contests.
That said, Mississippi State's defeats came against some strong competition, featuring a road loss to Auburn and a pair of close defeats at home against Kentucky and South Carolina. On the other hand, the Tigers munched on a cupcake schedule to wrap up the regular season by facing the four worst teams in the SEC.
From a matchup perspective, it's easy to see why Mississippi State hammered LSU last month. While outlier 3-point shooting from both sides will likely see regression, the Bulldogs should still cover the spread here.
The Bulldogs don't shoot the ball well but they get to the line, control the offensive glass, and score in the paint. The Bulldogs are 61st in the country with a 53.4 2PT% while the Tigers have allowed opponents to shoot 52.3% from inside the arc in conference play.
On the other side of the ball, MSU has been excellent, ranking 24th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are fifth in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29.4%) and they do a good job of pressuring ball handlers, boasting the fifth-best mark opponent turnover rate in the SEC (16.9%).
The Tigers turn the ball over at the second-highest rate in the conference and their outside shooters will be locked down by the Bulldogs perimeter defense. It certainly doesn't help that LSU's leading scorer Jalen Cook has been suspended for a "failure to meet team standards."
It might not be as much of a blowout as the previous clash, but the Bulldogs should be motivated to win big, with the NET valuing margin of victory up to 10 points.
My best bet: Mississippi State -5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Mississippi State vs LSU same-game parlay
Mississippi State -5
Tolu Smith Over 8.5 rebounds
Jordan Wright Under 1.5 made threes
The Bulldogs have been one of the top rebounding teams in the country and that starts with big man Tolu Smith, who leads the way with 8.2 per game. Smith has snagged at least nine rebounds in four of his last five games and MSU will need to control the boards if they want to cover.
With Cook unavailable for a large chunk of LSU's season, Jordan Wright has been the Tigers' most reliable scorer. That said, the wing doesn't hit many shots from downtown, knocking down more than a single 3-pointer just twice in his last 12 games. With the Bulldogs doing a great job of closing out perimeter shooters, take the Under 1.5 on Wright's treys this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi State vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
Mississippi State opened as 5-point favorites for this game with the O/U at 144.5.
The Bulldogs looked impressive during their non-conference schedule but they've been up-and-down in SEC play. While they've been stingy on the defensive end of the floor, they are a modest 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency and their poor outside shooting puts a ceiling on their scoring potential. They rank 41st in the country in the NET rankings and have gone 4-8 in Quad 1 games.
LSU is 92nd in the NET rankings and they will most likely miss out on the Big Dance for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 93rd in the country in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.
Mississippi State vs LSU betting trend to know
The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. LSU.
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Mississippi State vs LSU game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Thursday, March 14, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
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