The No. 23-ranked Kansas Jayhawks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in NCAA basketball action this afternoon at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks were humiliated earlier this week, and my Oklahoma State vs. Kansas predictions are backing Zeke Mayo to come out seeking redemption against a struggling defense.
Find out my best college basketball picks for this Big 12 showdown on Saturday, February 22.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas prediction
My best bet
Zeke Mayo Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s not uncommon for players to perform better in front of their own fans than they do on the road. But for Kansas Jayhawks guard Zeke Mayo, there truly is no place like home.
The senior is averaging 17.7 points at Phog Allen Fieldhouse this season, compared to just 10.6 points away from it. He’s shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc compared to a poor 32.1% on the road, attempts nearly three more shots per game, and has posted superior rebounding and free throw metrics as well.
But in Big 12 play, Mayo has played like there’s a yellow brick road built in Allen Fieldhouse, and it’s headed right to the basket. Through seven conference contests at home, he’s averaging 20.7 points, shooting better than 49% from downtown, and has scored 17+ points on five occasions.
What makes his outside shooting numbers even more impressive is the fact that Houston—one of the only two teams to hold him below that 17-point mark—used their terrific perimeter defense to limit Mayo to just one made 3-pt shot in eight attempts. If you take away that performance, his 3-pt percentage jumps north of 55.5% in conference play.
And because of that, he’s not afraid to let it fly. Kansas as a team struggles with outside shooting, connecting on just 32.8% of their outside efforts in conference play. As such, he’s who they rely on for an outside threat. And Mayo has provided that threat.
He’s attempted at least seven 3-pt shots in six of his seven conference games. The only one where he didn’t was against Iowa State. But given he made five of his six attempts, I’d say he deserves a pass on that one.
Mayo has connected on at least three long-range efforts in five home Big 12 contests, and will have a great chance to get open looks on Saturday. Oklahoma State plays a frenetic style of basketball, pushing the pace and trying to create trapping situations. This tends to lead to a lot of open looks all around the floor.
ShotQuality ranks Oklahoma State 348th in defensive spacing. And teams take advantage as the Cowboys rank 292nd in opponent shot making, and 301st in defensive rim and 3-rate. And on the road, it gets even worse.
The Cowboys are 0-7 on the road in conference play, with opponents posting a 56.2% eFG%. They’re also giving up 39% from beyond the arc, have the second-lowest block rate in the conference, and give up far more offensive rebounds when playing away from home.
The Kansas players have had to listen all week about how they are lacking in heart and courage, and Mayo’s coming off a stinker against BYU where he managed just six points. This is a "get-right" game for him, and I like him to do just that.
The high pace of play, open looks, and second-chances generated by the Jayhawks on the glass should lead to him flirting with 20 points.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Zeke Mayo Over 16.5 points
Oklahoma State team total Under 67.5
Kansas 1H team total Over 39.5
Oklahoma State’s road woes have typically been exacerbated by how poor of a start the team gets off to. The Cowboys have allowed at least 37 points before halftime in their seven Big 12 away contests, with opponents averaging 41.1 points.
Kansas will compound that. The Jayhawks are averaging 38.2 points per game at home in conference play, with at least 35 points in each game at halftime. Back the Jayhawks to get to 40 points before the break.
The Cowboys thrive on getting the ball inside to attack the rim and getting to the free throw line. But Kansas defends the rim as well as any team in the nation, posting the best eFG% defense in Big 12 play. They also don’t foul much, with only one opponent posting a free throw rate of better than 33% at Allen Fieldhouse.
Oklahoma State has topped 63 points just twice in seven road conference outings. Both times they achieved a FT rate of at least 40%. They struggle to finish at the rim despite a high share of attempts, and the two combined will lead to them failing to reach their team total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas odds
Oklahoma State vs Kansas live odds
Oklahoma State vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State +14.5 (-110) | Kansas -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State +800 | Kansas -1300
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oklahoma State vs Kansas betting trend to know
Oklahoma State has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.16 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas.
How to watch Oklahoma State vs Kansas
| Location | Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Oklahoma State vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
