Mississippi State vs Mississippi Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rebels Get Scrambled in Egg Bowl

One of the nation's most-played rivalries is renewed on the hardwood for the first time this season when the Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Oxford to face the Mississippi Rebels.

With his arrival, head coach Chris Beard has brought a fresh wave of renewable to the Mississippi program. The Rebels have made a miraculous turnaround from a year ago and will enter this game with a 17-3 record and back-to-back wins in SEC play.

The Bulldogs have looked to build on the momentum from a season ago after a narrow loss to Pittsburgh in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They've done that, for the most part.

I break down the college basketball odds and give my best college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 30 below.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi best odds

Mississippi State vs Mississippi picks and predictions

A tremendous mental battle with the Mississippi Rebels that's emerged with me is to keep fading them and hope for regression to come or pause. 

That's because the Rebels analytically are accomplishing what they've accomplished at a significantly unsustainable rate and are overrated based on their metrics. According to ShotQuality, they'll enter this matchup as quite literally the luckiest team in college basketball with an expected record of an insane 11-9.

Oddly enough, that 11-9 mark is precisely what this team is against the spread. So, fading them has been challenging, but I expect it to become more profitable. Yet again, I'm going against Beard and taking the Mississippi State Bulldogs as my best bet. Why? The most straightforward answer is regression. 

I projected this spread as an essential coinflip, and with that in mind, there isn't a significant edge on this game anywhere. These two teams are very close in talent and some metrics. That looming shot regression pushes things over the edge and makes the Bulldogs a play, but so do the tactics surrounding the two teams. 

The question here to determine the winner is which team wins between the margins. Those margins are the little things that decide basketball games. In this case, it's rebounding and turnovers.  

Mississippi State has a turnover issue, and Mississippi has a rebounding issue. The Bulldogs are better built to exploit the other team's weakness. They'll enter this game with the 34th-best offensive rebounding percentage in the country, and they're facing a team with the lowest defensive rebounding rate.

Even if flawed, the Mississippi defense has been effective, but I have my doubts about how effective it can be if it's given up a second chance on a third of its opponent's misses.

On the other hand, the apparent weakness for Mississippi State is holding on to the ball. However, I wonder if this Mississippi team that's just below average at forcing turnovers is built to exploit that. I'll say the Bulldogs win this battle of weaknesses, which will go a long way to determining a winner. 

The reason Mississippi is viewed so poorly metrically is likely related to its reliance on isolation scoring. It gets nearly 10% of its offense from isolation sets and the combo of Jaylen Murray and Jaemyn Brakefield is very good at converting these chances.

The problem here is it plays directly into Mississippi State's hands. From a field goal percentage standpoint, the Bulldogs are now the third-best isolation defense in the SEC. At times, it struggled against individual ball creators, but as the year has progressed, it's gotten better and better defending here.

Ask its last two opponents — Florida and Auburn — who have combined for just two points in isolation sets. Tonight, Mississippi will have to score in various ways and I have real concerns that its offense possesses enough quality to do that. 

Take State to score the small road upset in the Egg Bowl tonight. It can remove one of its opponent's best offensive attributes and should dominate the backboard. That should prove far too much for the Rebels to overcome.

My best bet: Mississippi State moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)

Mississippi State vs Mississippi same-game parlay

Mississippi State moneyline

Jaemyn Brakefield Over 1.5 turnovers

+290 at ESPNBET

Tying into the existing handicap above is our same-game parlay. We're pairing our best bet of Mississippi State moneyline with one player prop. 

Brakefield has gone back-to-back games with at least four turnovers. He has every chance to make it three straight in this game against a stifling Mississippi State defense.

However, we'll take the generous 1.5-turnover number. I expect Brakefield to be frustrated by one of the best isolation defenses in the league and try to over-create; this will naturally lead to a few careless mistakes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis

Our best bet tonight is Mississippi State on the moneyline. We've seen heavy action on the Rebels, but strangely enough, the line has moved a minimal amount. 

These two rivals have played closely contested games over the past few years, with last year's contest going to overtime. With that said, the Bulldogs have dominated this series despite the close games. Mississippi State has won three of the last four games and covered at that same rate. 

I projected a slight edge to the Over of 139, but the offensive issues I expect Mississippi will face make me want to stay away. There's also the factor of this having the potential to be a little nervy and scrappy early, given the rivalry aspect.

Thus, you're better served looking at the in-game Over if any side. Three of the last four games have gone Over but it's been split exactly 50/50 in the previous 10 meetings.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi betting trend to know

Mississippi State has won 19 of its last 29 games (+5.35 units / 5% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi game info

Mississippi State vs Mississippi key injuries

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