The Tar Heels could use a massive upset over their rival to boost their light NCAA Tournament resume. As for Duke, it will want to continue the nation's longest win streak (14) and solidify its case for a number one seed in March.
Read on for my North Carolina vs. Duke college basketball picks for Saturday, February 1st.
North Carolina vs Duke prediction
My best bet
North Carolina +14 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I'm backing the North Carolina Tar Heels, albeit doing it a bit begrudgingly.
It's hard to look past a double-digit point spread in this series. It's also hard to ignore the confidence that a reasonably experienced North Carolina team will have going into Cameron Indoor after sweeping the Duke Blue Devils last season.
Those are nice situational aspects in your favor, but they don't mean a ton in the grand scheme. Let's talk about the things that do and why I have confidence in my best bet of North Carolina +14.
Duke has looked tired recently?
An interesting phenomenon has developed in the ACC where the two tournament locks in the conference are getting world-beating efforts from their opponents, hoping to notch a win that gets them into the dance.
For a relatively young Duke team, but more importantly, a team led by a superstar in Cooper Flagg, the fatigue of that hasn't started to appear. Flagg has been great; he finished January with three straight 20+ point outings, which was the first time he has accomplished that all year.
However, game lapses have accumulated, and you have to wonder if it happens here.
As double-digit favorites in the last three straight games, the Blue Devils have had questionable periods of play. Against NC State, the Wolfpack led Duke early by as much as 13 points.
The game before that against Wake Forest, the Blue Devils saw a 13-point halftime lead completely evaporate and trailed midway through the second half before regaining control.
Even against Boston College, Duke looked sluggish and led at halftime by just six.
This may seem overly critical because Duke is still the only undefeated team in conference play. However, you must look through a critical lens when evaluating if a team can successfully cover such a large spread in a rivalry game.
I also like the chances of North Carolina scoring with enough regularity in the halfcourt to stay alive. That's half the battle when facing the team ranked third in KenPom defensive efficiency.
For all of the flaws of the inconsistent Tar Heels team, they have capable isolation scorers in the trio of RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, and Elliot Cadeau.
This is vital against Duke, who is a tremendous defensive team overall but just average defensively in isolation situations, allowing right at the national average from a points-per-possession perspective.
I'll take my chances that this trio can come up often enough to put out the fire of any large Duke run that gets this out of hand.
Between the lapses of play that have increased over the last month for Duke and a direct route to scoring on the offensive end for North Carolina, I have enough confidence in the Heels to cover such a large spread.
Cooper Flagg pick: Flagg Day
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 pts (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Volume, volume, volume.
Duke is riding the future number one overall NBA Draft pick as much as possible, and who could blame them? He has met the hype, and it's worked out for them as they've built the nation's longest win streak.
This feels too easy, but it's hard to imagine North Carolina stopping him too often.
The Heels are in the bottom 20 percentile nationally in defending in transition. That's one part of the problem.
The larger part of the issue is how they've defended bigs cutting to the basket so poorly this year, and it wouldn't be a surprise if we saw Cooper Flagg as a small-ball five for stretches tonight.
North Carolina vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
North Carolina +13.5
Ian Jackson over 14.5 pts
Ian Jackson has had a thing for performing on the road this season, averaging three more points away from home than in Chapel Hill.
This game feels right for him.
As I noted in my best bet, I have enough confidence in the Heels finishing in isolation situations, and Jackson may be the best North Carolina player on the court.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Duke odds
North Carolina vs Duke live odds
North Carolina vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +13.5 (-110) | Duke -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina (+720) | Duke (-1200)
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Duke betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games (+4.70 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Duke.
How to watch North Carolina vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
North Carolina vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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