It's Tennessee and Florida facing off in the best game of the weekend — at least on paper.
What more could you want? A rivalry game? You got it. Postseason implications? Yes. Regular-season implications? Of course. We have it all, including a team prop as my best Florida vs. Tennesee prediction.
Read on for my free college basketball picks for Saturday, February 1.
Florida vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Tennessee team total Under 74.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
A fatal flaw started to develop about midway through the Tennessee Volunteers season, even when they were winning.
The Vols were shooting a lot of threes, making their rate unsustainable and thus becoming reliant on settling for them. ShotQuality has given them two more losses on the season than they've actually had based on the quality of shots they've taken. That number was even higher a few weeks ago before they had lost three of the last four games.
Those above issues were best highlighted in their last home loss to a depleted Kentucky team. Tennessee took 45 threes. 45. And made 11. It was the three most attempts a Kentucky opponent had taken against the Wildcats in some time and the third most the Vols had taken in program history. Even making those issues worse was that 33 of those threes were graded as uncontested, and the Vols only made eight of them.
I say all of this to introduce my best bet: Tennessee team total Under 72.5. This team is still due for plenty of jump-shot regression, and the Florida Gators should do a good job of inducing it.
I haven't mentioned where this shot regression began to occur. Oddly enough, it happened in the first game between these two in early January. Tennessee broke some program records (not the good ones) and shot an eye-popping 4-29 from deep while getting thumped by the Gators by 30. While they won't shoot that bad from deep again in this game, it did give enough credence to the blueprint against Tennessee, which is likely working a second time. Part of that is because Florida defends the other options on the floor incredibly well.
The Gators have been great defensively at the rim, holding opponents to .79 points per possession on plays classified as "rim attacks." That's in the top 20% of college basketball, and having a near seven-footer in Alex Condon has been very helpful with that. They are also great at slowing down the go-to high-low stuff that Tennessee likes to run at the 90th percentile. They are one of the best in the sport, holding opponents to 0.52 points per possession on such sets.
I projected this number at 68.5. If Tennessee bounces back here, it won't come in a pretty one. I'll go with the Vols to continue struggling shooting until we're given a reason to think otherwise.
Florida vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennesee team total Under 74.5
Alex Condon Over 7.5 rebounds
Given the degree of missed shots I'm expecting, It makes sense to pair one of the best rebounders on the court to grab boards with my best bet. Condon has exceeded this number in three of his last six games and rebounds significantly better on the road than at home.
That's mainly the product of a minute increase and likely more trust from his head coach. That's not factored enough into this number. Kentucky's Amari Williams grabbed 15 boards against the Vols in a similar expected styled game, so it's hard for me to pass up the number here with a player with similar rebounding metrics, so I won't.
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Florida vs Tennessee odds
Florida vs Tennessee live odds
Florida vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Florida +3.5 | Tennessee -3.5
- Moneyline: Florida +136 | Tennessee -164
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Florida has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Florida vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Florida vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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