The No. 1 seeded Auburn Tigers take on the No. 8 seed Mississippi Rebels in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday.
The Tigers have the second-best odds to win the national championship and my Mississippi vs. Auburn predictions are betting on them to win big today.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 14, with tipoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Who will win Mississippi vs Auburn?
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 2 team in the country per KenPom and the NET rankings. Despite losing their final two games, they still have a 27-4 record and went 15-4 in Quad 1 games.
All four of Auburn's losses came against ranked opponents and the Ole Miss Rebels fell out of the rankings after a rough end to their regular season.
The Rebels went 6-9 against Quad 1 foes and lost by double-digits to Auburn twice since the start of February. The Tigers are 11.5-point favorites for good reason and should be able to cruise to victory here.
Mississippi vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Auburn -11.5 (-110 at bet365)
There has to be some concern that teams on a double-bye might start slow due to the layoff. That said, fatigue also plays a factor for teams on a back-to-back and Auburn has too many matchup advantages for me to bet against them here.
The Tigers have looked like an elite team all season and defeated Ole Miss twice over the last month and a half. They beat the Rebels 92-82 when these teams clashed in Oxford on February 1 before destroying them by 30 points in The Jungle on February 26.
The Tigers dropped their final two games of the regular season, losing at Texas A&M and falling in an OT thriller to Alabama. That said, I almost like them more for that reason. Sometimes the best thing for a title contender is to lose a game or two near the end of the regular season as a reminder that they're not invincible and need to be focused for tournament season.
Ole Miss also stumbled into the postseason, going 7-7 straight up and 2-11-1 against the spread in its last 14 games. Since the start of February, the Rebels are dead-last in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency which is bad news against an Auburn attack that is first in the country in adjusted offense.
Mississippi's biggest strength has been its ball pressure (35th in opponent turnover rate) but Auburn turns the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate in the country.
The Rebels' most glaring weakness is on the glass where they sit outside the Top 300 in rebounding rate (46.9%). They have one of the smaller lineups among high-major schools and will struggle against a long and athletic Tigers squad that is 50th in rebounding rate (52.8%) and 12th at attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets.
Mississippi vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Auburn -11.5
Chad Baker-Mazara 15+ points
Over 154.5
The 15+ points milestone for Baker is set at +130 and the guard has hit that number in five of his last seven games. He also scored 18 points in the first meeting between these teams and 22 points in the rematch.
With their defense struggling mightily, the Rebels have cashed the Over in nine of their last 11 games. The Tigers have also regressed on defense over the last month and a half which has led to them going 10-2 O/U in their previous 12 contests.
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Mississippi vs Auburn odds
Mississippi vs Auburn live odds
Mississippi vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +10.5 | Auburn -10.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +475 | Auburn -650
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 | Under 154.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mississippi vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Rebels are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Auburn.
How to watch Mississippi vs Auburn
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Mississippi vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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