It’s the final non-conference game of their regular season, and the Virginia Cavaliers should be feeling extra stingy as they host the Morgan State Bears.
Virginia was bumped out of the Top 25 after a loss to then-23rd Memphis, putting an end to a five-game win streak. It's a massive 26.5-point favorite in the college basketball odds.
The Bears are reeling, having lost two straight and nine of 11, and they’ve yet to win on the road or a neutral location, going 0-8.
It won’t be a matter of who wins, but by how much Virginia rolls. Check my free college basketball picks for Morgan State vs. Virginia on Wednesday, December 27.
Morgan State vs Virginia best odds
Morgan State vs Virginia picks and predictions
The Virginia Cavaliers get to shake the stink of their last performance with a get-right opponent tonight at John Paul Jones Arena, where they are a perfect 7-0 so far this year.
Virginia was crushed by the Tigers 77-54, the 23-point deficit signifying their worst loss of the year. Offensively, they were a mess, shooting just 39.3% from the field, including a brutal 4-for-19 from 3-point range, a lowly 21.1% clip.
Meanwhile, that vaunted Cavaliers defense was set ablaze. A team that’s ranked third in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and second in the nation in scoring at 55.3 points allowed per game, Virginia surrendered their season high.
It’s just the third time this season an opponent has scored more than 63 points in a game this year.
I’m not sure there’s much the Morgan State Bears bring to the table that could offer any sort of resistance, much less to a Virginia side that’s coming off that ugly loss.
The Bears were just thumped by 20th-ranked James Madison 89-75, a game they led 58-56 in the second half before the wheels came off, dropping them to 4-10 on the season. While they did shoot a respectable 47.7% from the field, they were only 3-for-14 from distance, outscored by 18 by the Dukes.
Defensively, they were done in by their fouling, which has been a concern this season. James Madison went 22-for-29 from the stripe, outscoring the Bears by 12 from the free-throw line.
The Bears are averaging over 18 fouls per game, which ranks 257th in the nation. Those are cheap points Virginia could use: they are among the lowest-scoring teams in college basketball, pumping out 65.5 points per game, which ranks 334th in the country.
Morgan State is also surrendering nearly 80 points per game, which is a dreadful 339th in college hoops.
Each of Virginia's last 11 games against non-conference foes at John Paul Jones Arena have gone Under 131 points. There’s nothing to indicate that changes tonight.
My best bet: Under 131.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Morgan State vs Virginia same-game parlay
Under 131.5
Morgan State Under 52.5 points
Virginia does not mess around with the lesser-ranked teams, and Morgan State, 343rd in the KenPom’s overall rankings, will be the second-lowest rated team they will face this season.
Every Virginia opponent in the bottom half of KenPom’s rankings has struggled to get it going offensively. Those four teams — Tarleton State, Texas Southern North Carolina A&T, and North Carolina Central — all failed to cross the 52.5 total points set for the Bears against Virginia.
The Cavaliers even have a ranked team, then 14th Texas A&M, finish under 50 points in a 59-47 win. I like the beat to go on against Morgan State.
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Morgan State vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
As late as Tuesday afternoon, Morgan State was as long as a 34.5-point underdog. The spread has been set mostly in the 26-point range, with the lowest seen at 25.5.
On the year, the Cavaliers are just 6-5-0 against the spread. With the line set at 226.5, they have just three 27+ point wins on the year, and all against nobody schools, including Tarleton State, North Carolina A&T, and North Carolina Central.
The Bears are just 4-6-1 ATS on the season and 2-4-0 on the road.
As for the total, it’s never dropped below 130.5 points while reaching a high of 132.5.
For Virginia, this is just the fourth game all year that a line has been set in the 130s. Before that loss to Memphis, the previous eight games went as low as 120.5 points and hit 129 once.
The Over is just 3-8-0 in 11 games this season.
This will be Morgan State’s lowest total set for a game this season — seven points lower than their previous low — and it’s just the fourth time it has dropped into the 130-point range for a total all year.
The Bears’ Over record is a respectable 7-4-0..
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Morgan State vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has won 20 straight home games against unranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Morgan State vs. Virginia.
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Morgan State vs Virginia game info
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 27, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
Morgan State vs Virginia key injuries
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