A pair of underachieving ACC teams are hoping a calendar flip to 2025 might start turning around their fortunes, as the North Carolina Tar Heels visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Tip-off is scheduled for Noon ET from Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, IN, and CBS has the coverage.
Despite a 6-1 home record so far this season, the Irish are 4.5-point underdogs in the college basketball odds.
My North Carolina vs Notre Dame predictions and college basketball picks have the Tar Heels closing out a lesser opponent that’s failed to rise up to its toughest challengers so far this season.
North Carolina vs Notre Dame prediction
My best bet
North Carolina -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The North Carolina Tar Heels are coming off a disappointing 83-70 loss to the Louisville Cardinals in what’s become an early season trend — its inability to land the plane and secure a victory.
With five minutes to play, the Tar Heels were trailing 70-69 before going cold, getting outscored 13-1 down the stretch.
It’s happened against some of their highest-profile opponents this season, losing games to Top-25 ranked teams Kansas, Michigan State, and Florida by five points or less.
Scoring doesn’t seem to be the problem, as they’re pumping out 85.4 points per game, second in the ACC. Defensively, though, the Heels are dead-last in scoring defense, with teams dropping nearly 80 points per game.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are middle-of-the-pack like the Tar Heels, but with a far less impressive resume.
The Irish saw its three-game win streak come to an end last time out, when they were dumped 86-75 against Georgia Tech, evening their ACC record to 1-1.
Other than junior forward Tae Davis, there’s not a lot to their roster, as the Irish are 13th in ACC scoring while ranking eighth in the conference in points allowed at 70.6 points.
But the numbers are tough to gauge when considering Notre Dame has just a single win this year against a team ranked inside KenPom’s Top 100. They’ve lost to two ranked teams in sixth-ranked Houston and 21st-ranked Creighton.
The books definitely respect the ‘Heels and have handicapped this one accordingly. UNC is ranked seventh in strength of schedule at KenPom.
They’ve also dusted the Irish five times in the last six meetings, with three of those wins coming by double-digits.
North Carolina vs Notre Dame same-game parlay
North Carolina -4.5
Tae Davis Over 5.5 rebounds
Braeden Shrewsberry Under 3.5 3-point makes
Davis has been active on the glass of late, topping his 5.5-rebound line set vs. UNC in three straight games, including grabbing seven boards last game against Georgia Tech.
He’s grabbed at least six boards in six of his last eight games, and he’ll be going up against a Tar Heels’ side that allows the most opponent rebounds in the ACC at 36.5 per game.
Braeden Shrewsberry has been dialing it up of late from distance. He went 4-for-6 last from beyond the arc, making it three times in the last four that he’s hit at least four triples.
However, on the season, Shrewberry has gone Under this total seven times in 13 games. Last season, he went 1-for-5 from 3-point range against Carolina, and I see him just settling under the total Saturday.
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North Carolina vs Notre Dame odds
North Carolina vs Notre Dame live odds
North Carolina vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina -5.5 | Notre Dame +5.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina -205 | Notre Dame +173
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
North Carolina vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
The Tar Heels have won 11 straight day games vs. ACC opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Notre Dame.
How to watch North Carolina vs Notre Dame
| Location: | Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
North Carolina vs Notre Dame key injuries
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