The Duke Blue Devils welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Tuesday night.
The inexperienced Blue Devils will try to get their season on track and fix their issues heading into March Madness. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are in the midst of an ugly season and will likely miss the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in the last five years despite a senior-laden squad.
College basketball odds opened with the Blue Devils as 12.5-point favorites before shortening to -12. Check out my college basketball betting picks for Notre Dame vs. Duke below.
Notre Dame vs Duke best odds
Notre Dame vs Duke picks and predictions
The Duke Blue Devils are a perfect 12-0 at home with an average scoring margin of +17.8 ppg. However, that number is inflated from non-conference routs of small schools. Since the new year, the Blue Devils have played four games at home and the largest margin of victory was eight points against Pittsburgh more than a month ago.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have yet to win on the road this season but are coming off a pair of close defeats, losing to Georgia Tech by two points last Wednesday before falling 93-87 to Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Although this Irish team is below average in many areas, they do have plenty of experience, turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the country, and rank 30th in free-throw percentage (76.1%).
They also play at a snail's pace and their average length of possession of 19.1 seconds ranks 329th in the country. Duke also plays at a very slow pace and is 273rd in adjusted tempo and fewer possessions for both sides will make it tough for the Blue Devils to cover this spread. Especially with how poorly the Blue Devils shoot from beyond the arc and their tendency to go ice-cold for stretches.
Duke might also be without its best player in Kyle Filipowski, who leads the squad in points (14.8) and rebounds (9.2). Filipowski sprained his ankle on the final play of regulation against Virginia and his status for tonight is up in the air. If he doesn't suit up, grabbing the Irish with 12 points will look like a bargain.
My best bet: Notre Dame +12 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Notre Dame vs Duke spread analysis
Both of these teams have been awful against the spread with Duke going 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games and the Irish having the second-worst ATS record in the country at 6-19.
The Irish have just one victory in their last eight games and have gone 3-5 ATS during that span. They're just 2-12 SU in conference play with their only wins coming at home against Georgia Tech and Louisville — the only teams below them in the standings.
In their last contest, they lost in a 93-87 shootout where they shot 55% from the floor but allowed the Hokies to shoot 57%.
Poor defending has been a massive problem for Mike Brey's squad with the Irish 313th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
They've been much better on the other end of the floor where they rank 71st in adjusted offensive efficiency and have four double-digit scorers.
The Irish are loaded with experience and five of their Top-6 scorers are seniors. Big man Nate Laszewski leads the way with 14.9 ppg on 54/43/86 shooting splits while adding 7.0 rpg.
The Blue Devils are on the other end of the spectrum with five freshmen playing significant minutes in their rotation and first-year head coach Jon Scheyer on the bench.
They are coming off a tough overtime loss on the road against No. 7 Virginia where a brutal non-call at the end of regulation prevented them from getting a chance to win. There's been plenty of growing pains for the Blue Devils, who are tied for seventh in the ACC standings with an 8-6 record.
One area where they've excelled has been on the glass, where they are fifth in the country in rebound rate (56.1%) while the Irish rank just 307th at 47.1%.
Notre Dame vs Duke Over/Under analysis
Duke is only a bit better on offense than Notre Dame, ranking 64th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they've been stingy on defense where they rank 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
It will be interesting to see if the Blue Devils can take advantage of Notre Dame's shoddy defense. They sit well outside the Top 200 in both field goal percentage (43.8%) and 3-point percentage (32.7%) but the Irish rank just 345th in opponent FG% (47.1%).
If Filipowski doesn't suit up, that'll hurt their ability to get buckets since he's one of only two Duke players averaging more than 9.0 ppg. The other is point guard Jeremy Roach who averages 12.6 ppg and 3.0 apg but isn't a dynamic play-maker or shot-creator.
On the other side of the court, Duke has been defending extremely well, especially with freshman Dereck Lively II emerging as a shot-blocking force.
The Blue Devils are allowing just 64.3 ppg on 41.6% shooting although those numbers have bumped up to 68.8 ppg and 42.6% shooting in conference play.
Notre Dame vs Duke betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Duke.
Notre Dame vs Duke game info
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 14, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
