While Ohio State’s football program was just crowned national champions, the basketball team is in desperate need of a win as it heads to West Lafayette to take on a surging Purdue Boilermakers squad.
With the Buckeyes’ recent struggles in Big Ten play and the Boilermakers riding a seven-game conference win streak, my Ohio State vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 21 expect Jake Diebler’s team to drop yet another game.
Ohio State vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Purdue -10 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It would have been completely justified for the Purdue Boilermakers to take a step back this season with two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey now in the NBA. Instead, Matt Painter’s team is thriving after losing a few tough games in December.
The Boilermakers are now ranked just outside the Top 10 in the latest AP Poll after beating No. 13 Oregon on the road, their third victory over a ranked team. Meanwhile, the Ohio State Buckeyes have quietly had a disastrous start to Diebler’s first season as the full-time head coach.
The Buckeyes are 5-7 straight-up and ATS since losing to Pittsburgh in OT on Nov. 29, and outside of a shocking upset of Kentucky in mid-December, there’ve been few flashes of hope for Ohio State fans. The team appears to be getting worse with a 1-4 record in January, which includes going just 1-4 ATS.
In Big Ten play, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS but this Purdue team is the best conference opponent they’ve faced yet. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 10 by KenPom and have an offense that’s bound to give Ohio State issues.
Led by point guard Braden Smith, Purdue is eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in field-goal percentage — it’s also first in Big Ten play in field-goal percentage (49.9%). The Boilermakers’ effectiveness on offense will challenge an Ohio State defense that’s 39th in adjusted efficiency and 185th in points allowed (71.4).
Between Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Smith, Purdue has one of the best trios of offensive playmakers in the Big Ten. Kaufman-Renn is Top 10 in the conference in points per game (17.9) and field-goal percentage (59%), Loyer is Top 5 in 3-point percentage (47.5%), and Smith leads the conference in assists per game (8.9).
Those three alone should be the difference for Purdue with each of them ranking Top 20 in the Big Ten in OBPR and Smith leading the conference in overall BPR, per EvanMiya. The Buckeyes just don’t have the defenders to slow them down, Ohio State has one player ranked top 20 in DBPR.
With an offense that has the potential to be the best in the conference, Purdue is poised to cover the spread for a seventh straight game.
Ohio State vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue -9.5
Braden Smith Over 8.5 assists
Bruce Thornton Over 16.5 points
Smith has gone from the guy who sets up Edey for buckets to one of the best guards in the country this season. He isn’t just scoring at a higher clip (15.1 PPG) either, he’s arguably the best passer in college basketball.
The sophomore is third in the country in assists per game and has finished with nine-plus in 10 games this season — he’s averaging nine per game in Big Ten play. He’s not the only All-Big Ten guard taking the court in this matchup though.
For all of Ohio State’s struggles this season, Bruce Thornton has been one of the conference’s top bucket-getters. Even when the Buckeyes are losing, he’s scoring — he’s put up 17-plus in six of his last seven games and is averaging 21.4 PPG over that stretch.
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Ohio State vs Purdue odds
Ohio State vs Purdue live odds
Ohio State vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Ohio State +10.5 (-110) | Purdue -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Ohio State +400 | Purdue -550
- Over/Under: Over 141 (-110) | Under 141 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Ohio State vs Purdue betting trend to know
Since 2023, Purdue is 32-24-2 ATS while Ohio State is 27-26-1. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Purdue.
How to watch Ohio State vs Purdue
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-21-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Ohio State vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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