Oregon vs Stanford Odds, Picks and Predictions: Shots Fall for Angel as Cardinal Conquer Ducks

The third-place Oregon Ducks (17-8, 9-5) look to stay near the top of the Pac-12 standings as they head to the Bay Area to face the Stanford Cardinal (12-13, 7-8). 

While the Ducks hold the higher pedigree, it’s the home team that has the slight edge according to the bookmakers. Looking at the college basketball odds, the Cardinal are a narrow one-point favorite while the total has been set at 150.5.

Is the betting line justified? Considering Stanford has a 30-5 record at home against Oregon, there’s more to factor into this handicap than might meet the eye at first. 

See which side I’m on with my best bet and read on for my full college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Stanford on Thursday, February 22.

Oregon vs Stanford best odds

Oregon vs Stanford picks and predictions

The Oregon Ducks are still hanging near the top of the Pac-12 standings, but that’s primarily due to a hot start in Pac-12 play. After beginning conference play 4-0, the Ducks are playing .500 ball at 5-5 in their last 10 games. 

They enter Palo Alto treading water and simply looking to stay afloat after trading wins and losses for their last seven games. After a last-second 60-58 win over Oregon State in Corvallis on Saturday, that would mean they’re in for a defeat in Palo Alto if the win-loss pattern holds. 

Maples Pavilion has typically been a challenging place for Oregon to visit. Perhaps calling Maples a horror show would be more accurate — the Ducks are just 5-30 all-time when playing on the road at Stanford. That includes a 1-4 record across the last five meetings. 

The Stanford Cardinal have been an interesting team to follow this season even if their record (12-13) doesn’t necessarily indicate a standout group. Why is that? Well, the Cardinal sport a deadly offense full of prolific shooters, ranking 10th nationally in three-point percentage (38.8%) while being one of just nine major-conference teams featuring five different players averaging double figures. 

The entire starting lineup averages 10+ points led by big man Maxime Raynaud (15.1 ppg). Freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle (12.7) pairs with senior Michael Jones (11.1) to form a dynamic backcourt while Brandon Angel (13) and Spencer Jones (10.7) complete the frontcourt. 

Another thing that stands out, literally, about Stanford is the sheer amount of size it brings to the table. Carlyle is the shortest starter at 6-foot-3 while Michael Jones is another big guard at 6-foot-5. Raynaud is a seven-footer while Spencer Jones (6-foot-7) and Angel (6-foot-8) provide plenty of length. That size will be crucial in counteracting Oregon’s best player, big man N’Faly Dante. 

Despite what the records say, there isn’t a whole lot separating these teams according to the metrics. According to Bartovik, Stanford (62nd) has been the better team than Oregon (72nd) since January 15. 

Stanford has been fine at home this season, going 9-4 while dropping 100-points in a blowout win over Arizona, beating Washington by 10 points, and most recently annihilating USC by 31 points. Oregon is just 2-3 in its last five road games and the two wins came against the conference’s two cellar dwellers, USC and Oregon State.

Stanford is good at home while Oregon is bad on the road. The Cardinal have been the better team overall across the last month-plus and have a very dangerous offense, especially at Maples. I think this is a decent time to buy low on Stanford after back-to-back road losses against an Oregon team that simply hasn’t impressed in quite some time. 

My best bet: Stanford -1 (-110 at DraftKings)

Oregon vs Stanford same-game parlay

Stanford moneyline

Brandon Angel Over 0.5 made 3s

Michael Jones Over 1.5 made 3s

+305 at DraftKings

If Stanford is going to win this game, it’s likely that the Cardinal has a good shooting night. This team’s success largely depends on its ability to light it up from downtown as they can 9.5 triples per game at a healthy 38.8% clip.

Oregon’s defense has been vulnerable to the deep ball as opponents are shooting 34.2% (245th nationally) from behind the arc. 

Good looks should be there for this Cardinal team. Angel is shooting 45.5% from 3-point range this season and has hit at least one triple in 16 of his 23 games. Jones is a sixth-year player hitting 3s at 45% and I like his chances of being used to open up this Ducks defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis

The betting line opened at Stanford +1 but has since flipped to -1. The total, meanwhile, has risen one point from 149.5 at open to 150.5 at current. Be sure to track any further moves using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Both teams have an identical 13-12 ATS record this season. Stanford has been a profitable team to back both at home (8-5 ATS) and as a favorite (8-5 straight up) while Oregon has been neutral on the road (4-4 ATS) and has a losing record as an underdog (2-4 straight up). 

As for the total, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a fair amount of points in this game. Both have played to the Over as Stanford is 15-10 O/U while Oregon is 14-10-1 O/U.

Stanford’s offense is deadly and it plays at a fast pace, ranking 67th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Oregon’s defense is nothing to fear, checking in at 89th in adjusted efficiency while ranking 262nd in field goal defense (45.1%). 

Stanford’s team total can be had for 75.5 and I don’t mind a play on the Over considering how good this offense has been at home and this matchup not being one to afraid of. 

The reason I stayed away from the total with my best bet is that I do have some trepidation regarding Oregon’s style of play lately. Dana Altman has increasingly run his offense through big man N’Faly Dante, and for good reason — he’s a monster, and one of the Pac’s best players. 

However, running the offense through the post and having a very thin lineup comprised of just eight available scholarship players means that the Ducks have slowed the pace. The eye test is backed up by the numbers — the Ducks rank just 215th in Bartovik’s adjusted tempo since the start of February. 

Oregon vs Stanford betting trend to know

Stanford holds a 30-5 all-time record at home against Oregon. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Stanford.

Oregon vs Stanford game info

Oregon vs Stanford key injuries

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