Pelicans vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: NOLA Picked Apart by Giannis

Change is afoot in Milwaukee with Adrian Griffin out and Doc Rivers in, and while it doesn’t sound like Rivers will be coaching against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans tonight, the NBA odds have the Bucks as five-point favorites with interim Joe Prunty calling the shots.

No division leading team in NBA history has ever appeared to be as happy as the Bucks players were to see their head coach fired and that should have Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. energized to take on a NOLA squad that’s just six games back in the West.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free NBA picks for the Pelicans vs. Bucks on Saturday, January 27.

Pelicans vs Bucks odds

Pelicans vs Bucks predictions

Despite the Milwaukee Bucks sitting as the two-seed in the East, Griffin was fired and it certainly seems like it had something to do with Giannis Antetokounmpo being unhappy with his new head coach. Enter Prunty, and eventually Rivers.

With the Greek Freak fired up and Milwaukee still one of the best teams in the NBA, Giannis can be the catalyst for helping Prunty end his interim stint with a winning record — he’s 1-1 so far after splitting a two-game series with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Of course, few players in NBA history are able to stuff the stat sheets like Giannis, but he’s almost too good. It's hard to find immense value in his lines. He’s -115 to go Over 33.5 points, -115 to go Over 45.5 points and rebounds, and -115 to go Over 52.5 points, assists, and rebounds.

While he is averaging 31 points, 11.7 rebounds, and a career-high 6.3 assists this season, the value with him in this matchup against Willie Green’s squad is on the defensive end. Giannis is +120 to go Over 2.5 steals and blocks.

In his career, Giannis is averaging 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks, but last season he tied his career-low in both categories finishing with just 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. Through 43 games this season, he’s seen an uptick in production on the defensive end with 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per game.

He’s finished with at least three steals and blocks in 19 games this season (44%) and has gone Over 2.5 in three of his last five games. This is a New Orleans Pelicans team that has been the 11th most blocked team in the NBA this season — 5.3 per game — and it’s up in the air whether or not Zion Williamson will play after missing Friday’s game.

While the Pelicans only allow 6.4 steals per game, the team is coming off a horrific outing against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In the 107-83 loss, the Thunder finished with 11 steals and even in a high-scoring 153-124 win over the Utah Jazz earlier in the week, the Pels were blocked eight times.

On the season, New Orleans is allowing an average of 11.7 blocks and steals per night, but in recent games that number has jumped up. In the Pelicans last four outings, the team has allowed 13.2 blocks and steals per game (7.2 steals, six blocks).

NOLA has given up the fourth most blocks to power forwards this season, 1.37, and with the team’s recent play, that should have Giannis licking his lips. He has the potential to not only put up astronomical offensive stats against New Orleans, but add to his defensive numbers.

My best bet: Antetokoumpo Over 2.5 steals+blocks (+120 at bet365)

Pelicans vs Bucks same-game parlay

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 steals+blocks

Antetokounmpo Over 52.5 points+rebounds+assists

Damian Lillard Over 3.5 made threes

Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points

+1,200 at bet365

One of the biggest reasons Griffin was fired was because of the Bucks defensive woes this season, but the team has stayed afloat thanks to the offensive prowess of Giannis and Damian Lillard.

Antetokounmpo has been a mad man all season with him putting himself in position to have a triple-double nearly every night. He’s had three TDs in his last five games and is averaging 29.2 points, 9.6 assists, and 13.2 rebounds over that span. 

And while Lillard hasn’t been quite as dominant since coming to Milwaukee, he’s still playing at an All-Star level on the offensive end. He’s hitting three threes per game and has hit at least four in 16 of 42 games. The Pelicans are allowing 13.4 threes per game — 11th most in the league — with 3.28 coming from point guards.

With Williamson’s status not clear heading into Saturday night, much of the offensive heavy lifting could fall on Brandon Ingram’s shoulders. He has a good matchup against the Bucks, who allow the second most points per game to shooting guards this season (24.1).

While Brandon Ingram is averaging his least points per game since arriving in New Orleans (21.1), he’s still capable of exploding on offense and has gone for at least 22 points in 20 of 41 games this season. This is a Bucks defense that’s allowing 120.2 points per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as 5.5-point home favorites at most books and remain there with it unclear if Williamson will be playing against them. Milwaukee has struggled to cover this season, going 17-27-1 ATS and 2-11 over the last 13 games. The Pelicans on the other hand have been one of the best ATS. New Orleans is 25-19-1 and 8-5 over the last 13.

The game total hasn’t shifted much with it opening no lower than 239.5, and most books are now settling in between 240.5 and 241.5. With the Bucks offensive explosion and ineptitude on defense, Milwaukee is 27-18 betting the Over. New Orleans is 22-22-1 betting the Over and 5-3 in its last eight.

Pelicans vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the game total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+16.40 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Bucks.

Pelicans vs Bucks game info

Pelicans vs Bucks latest injuries

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