The Indiana Hoosiers welcome the No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers to town on Tuesday in college basketball action. The Hoosiers swept the series with their cross-state rivals last season, but they'll have a tough time repeating that success.
College basketball odds opened with the Boilermakers as 9.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 151 for this Big Ten showdown. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Indiana on January 16.
Purdue vs Indiana best odds
Purdue vs Indiana picks and predictions
The Purdue Boilermakers rolled through their non-conference schedule by beating formidable opponents like Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona at neutral sites. However, the Boilermakers have been less impressive in conference play this season, going 4-2 straight up and 2-4 against the spread, with road losses to unranked Northwestern and Nebraska.
Now they head to a tough road venue at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where the Indiana Hoosiers have gone 9-1 SU, with their lone defeat coming in a close loss to No. 3 Kansas. Under the leadership of Mike Woodson, who took over as head coach in 2021, Indiana has achieved a 3-1 SU and an impressive 4-0 ATS in four matchups against the Boilermakers. This is impressive considering Purdue's consistent Top-5 ranking in all those contests, while Indiana remained unranked.
The Boilermakers are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency due to their effectiveness from both the interior and 3-point line. Center Zach Edey is a 7-foot-4 monster and is the odds-on favorite to repeat as National Player of the Year, currently averaging 22.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 64.5% from the field.
However, while Purdue has been clicking on offense, it's been showing cracks on defense lately. The Boilermakers are allowing 81.3 ppg and an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% over their last three games, which includes a road contest against Nebraska where they lost 88-72.
Indiana boasts a deep lineup with four players averaging double digits in points. The trio of Malik Reneau, Kel'el Ware, and freshman Mackenzie Mgbako form one of the largest and most athletic frontcourts in the nation for Indiana. Despite not excelling in 3-point shooting, the team compensates by taking fewer attempts from deep, resulting in less variability in their offensive output.
It's also worth noting that both teams do an excellent job of drawing fouls. Indiana is seventh in the country in opponent fouls per defensive play and 16th in free throw rate, while Purdue is 31st in opponent fouls per defensive play and 27th in free throw rate. However, the issue looming for the Boilermakers is that those calls are less likely to go their way when they are on the road.
The Hoosiers are more talented than their record would suggest, and Woodson has done a good job of getting them to outperform expectations against Purdue in the past. Playing in front of their home fans and with a frontcourt that is a matchup nightmare for most teams, back Indiana to cover the large spread on Tuesday.
My best bet: Indiana +9.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Purdue vs Indiana same-game parlay
Indiana +9.5
Malik Reneau Over 14.5 points
Malik Reneau Over 5.5 rebounds
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If the Hoosiers cover the spread, it's likely because their offense can keep up with Purdue's highly efficient machine. That should mean points for their leading scorer in Reneau.
They'll also have to do a better job on the boards, where Purdue ranks fourth in the country in rebound rate. That improved rebounding starts with Ware and Reneau, and the latter has pulled down at least six boards in nine of his last 10 games.
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Purdue vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Boilermakers installed as 9.5-point road faves, with the Over/Under listed at 151.5. The spread briefly went up to -10 or -10.5 at some books before buyback on the home side quickly brought it back to the opening number. The total has ticked down slightly to 150 or 150.5.
The Hoosiers are coming off a 74-62 win against Minnesota, and like Purdue, they are 4-2 in conference play. They began the season 0-5 ATS in their first five contests, but have since gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
The Boilermakers currently sit at 15-2, which is especially impressive when you consider that they have faced the toughest schedule in the country. They lost in overtime to Northwestern on December 1 and then reeled off seven straight wins before falling to Nebraska on the road last week.
Purdue vs Indiana betting trend to know
Purdue is 17-32-3 ATS (34.7%) in Big Ten play since the start of the 2021-22 season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Indiana.
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Purdue vs Indiana game info
| Location: | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Purdue vs Indiana key injuries
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