The No. 20 ranked Purdue Boilermakers face off against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Gophers have been the worst ATS team in the country, but my Purdue vs Minnesota predictions target a low total with my best bet. Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on January 2.
Purdue vs Minnesota prediction
My best bet
Over 135.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These teams prefer a slow tempo, but this total is too low, considering how efficient the Purdue Boilermakers are on offense and how soft both teams have been on defense.
Keep in mind the Over is 4-1 in the Minnesota Golden Gophers' last five games, while Purdue is 4-2 O/U in its previous six. This is also Purdue's first game with a total below 143.
The Boilermakers are 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, and they're fresh off an 83-64 win against Toledo.
This Purdue squad has excellent ball movement and spaces the floor, shooting a sizzling 39.2% from deep. The Gophers are 90th in adjusted defense and have been torched by quality teams. They allowed Indiana 82 points on 57% shooting and surrendered 90 points to Michigan State at home.
That said, Minnesota has shown improvement on offense since point guard Mike Mitchell Jr. returned from an ankle injury at the start of December. With Mitchell (13.3 ppg, 3.7 apg) and forward Dawson Garcia (19.1 ppg on 51/37/84 shooting splits), the Gophers should be able to get buckets at home.
The Gophers are ninth in the country in attacking the rim, per ShotQualityBets, while Purdue is outside the Top 300 in defending the rim. The Boilermakers are outside the Top 200 in opponent 2-point percentage (52.2%) and opponent turnover rate (16.5%) and have surrendered at least 78 points in four of their last six contests.
Purdue vs Minnesota same-game parlay
Over 135.5
Dawson Garcia Over 17.5 points
Purdue moneyline
Dawson Garcia was one of the top recruits in the class of 2020, and while Minnesota has been awful, he's been balling out ever since transferring from North Carolina. The 6-foot-11 forward leads Minnesota with 19.1 ppg and has scored at least 18 points in five straight games.
The 8-5 Gophers are coming off back-to-back wins, but those came against terrible Morgan State and Fairleigh Dickinson teams. They've covered the spread just once this season, in their season opener against Oral Roberts.
That said, the Boilermakers are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six, so I'm reluctant to lay 5.5-points on the road. However, they're still the better team on both sides of the floor and should win outright.
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Purdue vs Minnesota odds
Purdue vs Minnesota live odds
Purdue vs Minnesota opening odds
- Spread: Purdue -6.5 | Minnesota +6.5
- Moneyline: Purdue -290 | Minnesota +235
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 | Under 136.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Minnesota betting trend to know
The Boilermakers have gone 23-15 ATS in the first half over their last 38 games, while Minnesota has covered the first-half spread just 12 times in its last 34 contests (-12.35 Units / -31% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Minnesota.
How to watch Purdue vs Minnesota
| Location: | Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Purdue vs Minnesota key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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