The No. 18 ranked Purdue Boilermakers welcome the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to Mackey Arena on Tuesday night.
The Boilermakers have been money for Over bettors at home and my Rutgers vs. Purdue predictions expect that to continue.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on March 4.
Rutgers vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Over 152.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These teams combined for just 118 points when they clashed at Jersey Mike's Arena on January 9 but I'm expecting a shootout in the rematch. Keep in mind that the Purdue Boilermakers went an uncharacteristic 4-24 from deep in that game while the Rutgers Scarlet Knights also had an extreme outlier performance by shooting just 34% from 2-point range.
The Boilermakers are coming off a game where they scored 76 points with an effective field goal percentage of 62.5% against UCLA. If they could do that against a Top-20 defense that plays at a sluggish tempo, just imagine what they can do against an up-tempo Rutgers squad that is 247th in the country in opponent eFG% (52.3%).
Purdue is first in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency during conference play and should torch Rutgers who is 14th out of 18 teams in adjusted defense. The Boilermakers have been even more efficient at home where they shoot 59.2% from 2-point range and a sizzling 40.8% from deep.
That's a big reason why the Over is 9-0 at Mackey Arena during conference play this season. The other reason is that the Boilermakers have been vulnerable in their own end of the floor. Purdue is outside the Top 350 at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets and is dead-last in the conference in opponent 2-point percentage (58.8%) during league play. They'll have a tough time slowing down the Scarlet Knights who have scored more 80 points in five of their last seven games, including road tilts against strong defenses in Michigan and Maryland.
Rutgers is led by the freshmen duo of Dylan Harper (19.3 ppg) and Ace Bailey (18.2 ppg) who look certain to go in the Top 5 of the NBA draft. The Boilermakers don't have the athleticism to hang with those guys on isolation plays but will put up plenty of points of their own.
Rutgers vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 152.5
Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 21.5 points
Dylan Harper Over 17.5 points
Trey Kaufman-Renn has scored at least 22 points in nine of his last 11 games. The forward shoots 61% of the floor and takes virtually all of his shots from inside the arc. He'll put up points against a soft Rutgers interior that allows conference foes to shoot 54.5% from 2-point range.
Harper leads Rutgers with 19.3 points per game despite having several ugly performances where he was held back by illness and a high ankle sprain. He looks back to full strength and has dropped 25+ points in two of his last three games.
The freshman phenom is in the top 10th percentile in transition efficiency while sitting in the top 20th percentile in attacking the rim. The Boilermakers are 342nd in transition defense while sitting outside the Top 350 at defending the rim.
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Rutgers vs Purdue odds
Rutgers vs Purdue live odds
Rutgers vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Rutgers +11 (-110) | Purdue -11 (-110)
- Moneyline: Rutgers +375 | Purdue -500
- Over/Under: Over 154 (-110) | Under 154 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rutgers vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Boilermakers have gone 9-0 to the Over at home during conference play this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Purdue.
How to watch Rutgers vs Purdue
| Location | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Rutgers vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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