Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga Predictions, Picks, and Odds: WCC Final Sees Plenty of Buckets

As both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s gear up for a March Madness run, the top two programs in the West Coast Conference must first do battle in the conference title game.

It will be the third time the Bulldogs and Gaels have played each other this season, and after splitting the first two games, the Conference Tournament odds have the Zags as a 3.5-point favorite in Las Vegas.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free college basketball picks for Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s on March 12. Be sure to also stay up to date with our March Madness odds as the spots begin to fill out!

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga best odds

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

The last 15 West Coast Conference Tournament champions have either been Gonzaga (12) or Saint Mary’s (three) and only one other program (San Diego) has won the tournament since 1999. These two have played each other in the tournament title game in 11 of the last 15 seasons and have both been staples in the NCAA Tournament.

It’s no surprise they’re once again the last two teams standing in the West Coast Conference Tournament, especially when both programs have been led by the same men for over two decades. Mark Few’s Bulldogs have long played an explosive brand of offense and have put several big names in the NBA, while Randy Bennett’s Gaels lean on defensive dominance to win.

These clashing styles set these teams up for an interesting matchup in the West Coast Conference championship game, especially with the game total set at just 138.5. While the Under did hit in both of the previous matchups this season, the exhaustion of playing back-to-back do-or-die games can take a toll on the defensive end.

Taking the Over in a game that involves the Gaels defense — which holds teams to just 58.7 points per game — might be a risky proposition, but this Bulldogs offense is among the most efficient in college basketball.

Coming off an 89-point performance against a San Francisco team with the 41st-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, the Bulldogs proved once again their scoring depth makes them a tough out. Gonzaga has four players averaging at least 13.8 ppg in conference play with three of them shooting over 38% from beyond the arc.

Having so many players to lean on has helped Gonzaga put up 87 points per game in West Coast Conference play while being one of the top shooting teams in the country. In conference play, Gonzaga is first in field goals made per game (33.2), first in field goal percentage (54.9%), first in 2-point percentage (62.5%), and second in 3-point percentage (38.7%).

The Gaels may have built their brand on feisty defense, but Bennett’s squad has been a consistent offensive threat this season, sitting 46th in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in the conference in offensive rating. 

Saint Mary’s has been putting up the third most points per game in West Coast Conference play this season (77.9), and sits third in the WCC field goals made per game (28.6), second in field goal percentage (49.4%), third in 2-point percentage (54.2%), and first in 3-point percentage (41.2%).

With five players averaging at least 10.9 ppg, the Gaels efficiency from deep is what could give the Zags the most trouble. Gonzaga is allowing opponents to shoot 35.3% from three, and Saint Mary’s has four players shooting over 39% from behind the arc with all of them taking at least two threes per game.

After the previous two matchups between these teams hit the Under, the efficiency of both programs shooting and the scoring depth both bring to the court should allow this to be the highest scoring game between the two this season. 

My best bet: Over 138.5 (-110 at bet365)

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga same-game parlay

Over 138.5

Graham Ike Over 16.5 points

Aidan Mahaney Over 12.5 points

+375 at bet365

The best way to attack this Saint Mary’s defense is inside the arc with physicality. The Gaels have seen 36.6 two-pointers per game in conference play and are putting opponents on the free throw line 14.6 times per game.

That gives Gonzaga’s Graham Ike the best opportunity to put up points. He’s the Bulldogs best 2-point threat, shooting 64.5% from inside the arc, and leads the team with 4.2 free throw attempts per game. Ike has averaged 18.4 points per game in WCC play this season, the most on the team.

To keep up with Ike and the Zags, Saint Mary’s Aidan Mahaney will need a big game. He leads the team with 14.7 ppg in conference play and takes a team-leading 6.8 threes per game, making 39.8% of them. His shooting can give the Bulldogs iffy perimeter defense trouble.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis

After Gonzaga beat San Francisco 89-77 in the WCC semifinals, the Bulldogs opened as 2.5-point favorites against a Saint Mary’s team that defeated Santa Clara 79-65. 

The line has since moved further in the Zags direction with most books now having them -3.5 in the championship game. Gonzaga is 15-15 ATS this season while Saint Mary’s is 17-14. In the regular season finale between these two, Gonzaga covered as 3.5-point favorites, but the Gaels covered as 4.5-point dogs in a matchup on Feb. 3.

With the contrasting styles of these two teams, the game total opened at 139.5 and has since moved down to 138.5. The Bulldogs are 15-15 betting the Over this season with Saint Mary’s 17-14. The Gaels have hit the Over in five of their previous six games. 

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

Saint Mary's has only hit the game total Under in 10 of their last 22 games at home (-3.15 Units / -13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga game info

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga key injuries

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