There's a surplus of hard feelings in the Hoosier State when the Purdue Boilermakers battle the Indiana Hoosiers in Big Ten action today.
The Boilermakers back into this classic rivalry on a three-game skid, now playing their third road stop in the past four games. These foes faced off at the end of January, with Purdue’s 81-76 victory playing Over the total.
This time around, my Purdue vs. Indiana predictions expect points to be a premium. That’s behind my best college basketball picks for Sunday, February 23.
Purdue vs Indiana prediction
My best bet
Under 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These rivals clashed on January 23, with the final score finishing well above the closing total of 144.5 points. Both teams shot better than 52% from the field, with the Indiana Hoosiers getting hot in the first half (41 1H points) and the Purdue Boilermakers picking up 26 easy points off 20 IU turnovers.
That result isn’t really how these programs do business and is dragging the total for this rematch higher than it should be. Game models have this matchup pumping out between 147 and 150 points, with the bulk of those forecasts shorter than 150 points.
For one, the Boilermakers play a much more plodding pace than the one set in that transition-heavy win over Indiana. As for the Hoosiers, their offense has put forth efforts of 64, 67, 68, and 71 points since that road loss in Mackey Arena, shooting a collective 42.7% in those four games (0-4 O/U).
Heading into this Sunday showdown, Purdue head coach Matt Painter is turning to his defense to right the ship for the Boilermakers. The team has given up more than 81 points per outing over this three-game slide.
Painter is putting emphasis on stiffening the protection in the paint against a big Hoosiers lineup that dropped 40 PITP on Purdue last month. Expect the Boilermakers to slow down the attacking IU guards and defend the high ball screen more effectively, dropping behind screeners and giving Indiana the outside space rather than letting it get dribble penetration.
That game plan has validity since IU is a terrible outside shooting team. On the year, Indiana is 292nd in 3-point percentage (31.5%), and that’s dropped to just 26% over the past four contests.
As for the Boilermakers, they play a little defense on offense. They run one of the slower tempos in the Big Ten and work the halfcourt offense deep into the shot clock. It leads to solid looks and an efficient offense overall, but not the most explosive scoring threat.
Purdue is wrapping up a grueling stretch of schedule with this being the third road game in the past four outings, and the Boilermakers see a significant downtick in offensive production as visitors, averaging only 71.2 points — a 13.5-point difference compared to their home split. That’s led to a 3-6 Over/Under on the road this season.
Indiana has been a tougher test defensively inside Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers allow visitors just 68.7 points on average — a notable pivot from the more than 79 points allowed per road game. The offense, however, doesn’t see as significant a lift from the friendly confines.
As noted above, game projections all sit below of the 150.5-point total. My number comes out shorter than 148.5 points in this Big Ten tilt.
Purdue vs Indiana same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 150.5
Purdue moneyline
Fletcher Loyer 15+ points
Defense is the name of the game in this all-Indiana matchup. My game forecast calls for 148 points.
The Boilermakers snap their three-game slide and put the clamps on IU’s interior offense.
Loyer has scored 15 or more in five of his last eight games, including 15 versus Indiana on January 31.
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Purdue vs Indiana odds
Purdue vs Indiana live odds
Purdue vs Indiana opening odds
- Spread: Purdue -3.5 | Indiana +3.5
- Moneyline: Purdue -173 | Indiana +147
- Over/Under: Over 151 | Under 151
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Indiana betting trend to know
Purdue gone Under its team total in nine of its last 12 away games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Indiana.
How to watch Purdue vs Indiana
| Location | Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN |
| Date | Sunday, 2-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Purdue vs Indiana key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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