San Diego vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Underdogs Still Can Run it Up

The biggest Over/Under on the college basketball betting board this Thursday is a West Coast Conference clash between the San Diego Toreros and Gonzaga Bulldogs.

The total is sitting at a whopping 164 for this contest with the Zags installed as massive 23-point home favorites at the McCarthey Athletic Center.

With the Zags struggling to cover big spreads this season due to their shaky defense, I'm looking at a team total with my best free San Diego vs. Gonzaga college basketball picks and predictions for February 23.

San Diego vs Gonzaga best odds

San Diego vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

The Toreros are coming off a loss to Saint Mary's where they scored just 59 points, but the Gaels are one of the best defensive teams in the country and play at a snail's pace.

Now San Diego gets to take on a Gonzaga squad that plays at a speedy tempo and has struggled defensively. The Zags allow 75.4 points per game and have surrendered more than 80 points in three of their last four contests. 

The Toreros also prefer to push the tempo and rank 40th in the country with 77 ppg. Don't expect the hostile crowd to bother them either since they average 78.8 ppg and have a 51.1 EFG% on the road.  

Although Eric Williams Jr. (14.5 pp) is listed as questionable and could miss his fifth straight game, the Toreros have the scoring depth to overcome his possible absence. Three other players average double-digits in scoring, led by guards Marcellus Earlington (17.6 ppg on 50/37/80 shooting splits) and Jase Townsend (15.3 ppg on 46/39/86 shooting).

While Gonzaga is a huge favorite in this contest that might also lend itself to the Toreros going Over their team total since the Zags could take their foot off the pedal in the second half and let San Diego bomb away from the 3-point line.

My best bet: San Diego team total Over 70.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

San Diego vs Gonzaga spread analysis

The Toreros are coming off a 62-59 loss to Saint Mary's, but considering that the Gaels have the best record in the conference, covering the spread as 13.5-point home pups was a promising sign.

Things don't get any easier for the Toreros, now heading to Spokane to take on the Zags, who are 12-2 in conference play and 13th in the country in adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom. 

San Diego is second last in the conference with a 4-10 record. While the Toreros have been filling up the hoop they've been awful on the other end of the floor and rank 333rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Toreros have a small lineup and length could be an even bigger problem today if 6-foot-9 forward Jaiden Delaire misses his fifth straight game with a hand injury.

Although the Toreros have the depth to replace Williams' scoring, they'll really miss his team-high 9.5 rebounds per game. They rank just 253rd in the country in rebound rate (48.6%) with that number dropping to 45.9% in their last three games without him. 

The Zags are 54th in the country in rebound rate and big man Drew Timme (conference-leading 21.3 ppg on 61.5 FG%) should have a field day inside the paint. Timme leads a Gonzaga team that ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but is just 87th on defense.

The Zags failed to live up to lofty preseason projections and struggled to cover the spread for much of the season. However, they've gone 4-3 ATS in their last seven games.

That said, they won by more than 20 points just twice in their last 13 contests so swallowing the chalk as 23-point faves tonight seems like a tough ask for any bettor.

San Diego vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis

We're seeing a massive total of 163.5 for this contest, but given the fact that both teams are much better on offense than defense and like to push the pace, that shouldn't be surprising.

San Diego averages 76.5 ppg against conference foes but surrenders a pathetic 82.3 ppg in WCC play. Gonzaga puts up an incredible 89.8 ppg in conference play but also gives up 76.9 ppg. 

The Toreros offense will take a bit of a hit if Williams and Delaire are unable to suit up, but they'll also miss their length on the defensive end of the floor. 

Despite some big totals for both teams, they have been money for Over bettors. The Over has cashed in five straight contests for Gonzaga while going 20-7 in San Diego's previous 27 games on the road.

San Diego vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

The Over is 15-5 in San Diego's last 20 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego vs. Gonzaga.

San Diego vs Gonzaga game info

San Diego vs Gonzaga key injuries

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