The Gonzaga Bulldogs host the San Francisco Dons in WCC basketball action on Thursday night. The Zags were dropped from the AP Top 25 earlier this week, making it the first time they haven't been ranked since 2016.
That said, this is still a highly-talented squad and college basketball odds reflect that with Gonzaga entering this contest as 10.5-point home favorites against a Dons team that isn't a pushover.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga on January 25.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga best odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga picks and predictions
It's fair to say the Gonzaga Bulldogs are going through a down season. While they're still 13-5 despite facing a tough non-conference schedule, it's clear they aren't on the same level as the last few years.
There's no shame in losing to No. 1 UConn and No. 2 Purdue at neutral sites (although scoring 63 points in each contest wasn't a good look) but they've also dropped contests against Washington, San Diego State, and most recently Santa Clara.
The San Francisco Dons are a sleeper to win the WCC title and while they're coming off a lopsided loss to Saint Mary's, that snapped a seven-game win streak where they went 6-1 against the spread. When it comes to many statistical areas there isn't much separating these schools.
Neither team shoots well from deep but both have been highly efficient inside the arc with the Dons 10th in the country in 2-point percentage (58.3%) and the Bulldogs 13th (57.3%). The Zags have dominated the glass and rank 14th in rebounding rate (55.7%) but the Dons are close behind at 54.5%.
The Dons have done a much better job of pressuring ball-handlers (19th in opponent turnover rate) but they also rank just outside the Top 200 in turnover rate themselves. Meanwhile, the Zags do a better job of taking care of the ball (65th in turnover rate) but are just 198th in opponent turnover rate.
There isn't a massive gap between these schools but there's still a perception that Gonzaga is an elite team which has inflated some of their lines this season.
With San Francisco 39th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and having the ability to slow down Gonzaga's up-tempo attack, take the Dons with the points.
My best bet: San Francisco +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
San Francisco vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
San Franciso +9.5
Under 152.5
Graham Ike Under 7.5 rebounds
If the Dons cover this spread, it'll likely be because they prevent Gonzaga from controlling the pace. The Zags are 29th in average length of possession on offense (15.7 seconds) but the Dons are 337th in average possession length on defense (18.2 seconds).
While both teams have scored plenty of points against subpar foes, they've generally cashed the Under on game totals when playing against strong opposition.
Defense travels so I'm expecting a strong defensive effort from San Francisco here but the Zags are 22nd in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (44.5%) so it won't be easy for the Dons to score either.
Ike has grabbed fewer than 7.5 rebounds in four of his last five games. He's also logged 18 or fewer minutes in four of his previous eight contests with freshman big Braden Huff earning more playing time.
Factor in the slow pace the Dons prefer and how good they've been on the glass, and the Under 7.5 boards for Ike makes sense in this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best college basketball bonuses
All Users
25% boost for 3+ leg CBB parlay
e.g. +200 BOOSTS to +250! Claim Now
New Users
Wager $5 on any market
Get $158 in bonus bets! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
San Francisco vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Zags installed as 10-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 149.5. Money has come in on the Dons and the Under with the spread ticking down to -9 or -9.5 and the total climbing to 152.5 as of 1 p.m. ET.
The Bulldogs are coming off a 105-63 rout of San Diego and they are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. That said, all four of those victories came against San Diego and Pepperdine who rank outside the Top 200 in the KenPom ratings.
While the Zags have fallen out of the AP Top 25, they're still 19th in the KenPom ratings while ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Dons will try to bounce back from a 77-60 loss at home to a Saint Mary's team that has one of the stingiest defenses in the country. San Francisco has gone a sizzling 13-6 ATS this season and the Over is 7-0-1 in its last eight games.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
The Dons are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga game info
| Location: | McCarthy Athletic Center, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, January 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
San Francisco vs Gonzaga key injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
