In what many considered to be a down year for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the program is still ranked in the AP Poll and is one win away from playing in the West Coast Conference Tournament title game. Only the San Francisco Dons stand in their way.
The conference tournament odds have the Zags as an eight-point favorite heading into the semifinal against the Dons in a matchup of two similar teams. With both squads efficiently shooting the ball, expect a high-scoring game in Las Vegas with March Madness odds around the corner.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for San Francisco vs Gonzaga on Monday, March 11.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga best odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga picks and predictions
Since Mark Few took over as the Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach in 1999, they have finished in the Top 10 of the final AP Poll 14 times, including in each of the past seven seasons. While this year’s team may not have the same star power as previous seasons, nor finish ranked as highly, it’s still capable of winning the West Coast Conference Tournament and making noise in March Madness.
It’s quietly been one of the most explosive offenses in college basketball and it’s only averaging slightly fewer points than the teams led by Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs, and Chet Holmgren. This is a program nobody is going to want to see in the NCAA Tournament with its ability to light the scoreboard up.
A few hours south, the San Francisco Dons have a chance to make their second tournament in three seasons and the first under head coach Chris Gerlufsen. It’s a similarly high-scoring offense to that of Gonzaga’s and leans on multiple volume scorers and a plethora of trusted 3-point shooters.
These are two of the best offenses in the West Coast Conference and points are scored in volume when they get together. With the game total at just 149, the Over is in play, especially with how the Bulldogs offense has looked in conference games this season.
Putting up the sixth-most points per game in the country (85.6), Gonzaga has been even better against WCC opponents, leading the conference with 87 points per contest. Its high-level scoring ability has it ranked ninth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and it sits No. 1 in offensive rate in its conference by a wide margin, per EvanMiya.
All season, the Zags have been beating up on defenses behind the play of Graham Ike, Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman, and Ryan Nembhard. Those four have helped lead an offense that ranks first in the country in field goals made per game (32.3), second in field-goal percentage (51.9%), and fifth in 2-point percentage (59.6%).
While the Zags have been less of a threat from behind the arc this season, shooting 35% from deep, they’ve gotten more efficient as the season has gone on and are second in conference play in three-point percentage (38.7%). In conference games, Gonzaga leads the WCC in nearly every shooting category, including field-goal percentage (54.9%) and 2-point percentage (62.5%).
The Bulldogs have such a deep rotation of scorers that the program has the four top-rated players in OBPR in the WCC and six of the Top 10. That should help them to take advantage of a Dons defense that’s been allowing 72.5 points per game in conference play with opponents shooting 45.6% from the floor and 36.3% from three while getting to the free-throw line 22.9 times per game.
With the Zags being an offense-first program, its defense can be taken advantage of by San Francisco. Gonzaga ranks 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Dons have proven scorers in Jonathan Mogbo, Marcus Williams, and Malik Thomas.
That trio has allowed San Francisco to score the second most points per game in conference play this season (79) and has the team ranked behind just Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in offensive rating in the WCC.
The Dons are hitting the second most field goals per game in conference play (29.3) while shooting the third-best field-goal percentage (48.2%), the second-best 2-point percentage (58%), and taking the second-most threes (24.4) and hitting 33.5% of them.
Between the volume of shots these programs take — ranking as the top two in field goal attempts in the WCC — and the efficiency of their shooting, they’re poised to hit the Over against each other for the second straight time this year.
My best bet: Over 149 (-110 at bet365)
San Francisco vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
Over 149.5
Graham Ike Over 20.5 points
Jonathan Mogbo Over 12.5 points
While Graham Ike may not be the same prolific scorer as past Gonzaga stars, the Wyoming transfer has been the Bulldogs' go-to option for much of the season. He leads the team with 16.9 points per game and has brought his best in conference play (18.4 ppg).
The 6-foot-9 Ike has been even better as of late with seven straight games of at least 20 points, including 26 in his last game against San Francisco. Over that seven-game stretch, he’s averaging 23.3 points per game.
Similarly, Jonathan Mogbo, a Missouri State transfer, has been better in WCC play. He’s averaging over a point more per game against conference opponents (15.6) and has gone for at least 13 in seven of his last 11 games, including 14 against Gonzaga.
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San Francisco vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis
With Gonzaga sitting second in the WCC this season behind just Saint Mary’s, the program opened as an 8.5-point favorite over San Francisco. Most books have come down a half point and have the Bulldogs -8.
The Zags have been uneven against the spread, going 14-15, but are 6-4 over the last 10 games. San Francisco has been much more consistent with an 18-13 record ATS, but it was unable to cover as a four-point underdog in its last game against Gonzaga on Feb. 29.
Given both of these offenses’ ability to score, the game total opened as high as 151.5 with most books coming down to 149 as tip-off approaches. The Bulldogs are 14-15 betting the Over this season while the Dons are 16-15. With the game total at 153 in the previous game between the two, the Over hit.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
San Francisco has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.
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San Francisco vs Gonzaga game info
| Location: | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, March 11, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
San Francisco vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Moneyline (ML): San Francisco +300 | Gonzaga -385
- Against the spread (ATS): San Francisco +8.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): Over 149.5 (115) | Under 149.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
San Francisco vs Gonzaga key injuries
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