Monday night college hoops features an intriguing nightcap in the WCC Championship semifinals between the No. 3 seed San Francisco Dons and the No. 2 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in Paradise, NV.
A shorthanded USF team ran through Washington State 86-75 in the quarterfinals but faces a difficult task against Gonzaga.
The Zags are a Top-10 team by advanced metrics and will prove to be too much for the Dons. Read about why in my San Francisco vs. Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, March 10.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga prediction
Who will win San Francisco vs Gonzaga?
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are massive -1200 favorites and will move on to the championship game. The Zags have featured in the title game every year since 1998, so it’d be shocking if their 27-year run was cut short by a San Francisco Dons team missing its second-leading scorer (Marcus Williams). Mark Few’s squad won both regular season meetings by an average of 15.5 points and have won 32 consecutive games against the Dons.
My best bet
Gonzaga -14.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Gonzaga suffered some uncharacteristic defeats this season, finishing the regular season with eight losses while dropping two consecutive WCC games for the first time in over a decade. But I’m not pressing the panic button as those losses came by a combined 41 points and this is still one of the best teams in the country.
The Zags rank just 350th in KenPom’s luck metric, suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune while still playing like a Top-10 team according to most analytic sites.
Point guard Ryan Nembhard leads the country in assists per game (10.0). He’s surrounded by one dominant big man in Graham Ike (17 points, 7.4 rebounds per game), two other versatile bigs in Braden Huff and Ben Gregg (combined 20.5 points, 8.5 rebounds per game), and a handful of capable wings.
The Zags are heavily favored to move on to the finals. When they win, they tend to win big — all but two of their 23 wins have been by double digits. Las Vegas has been a friendly confine for Few’s squad, which is 33-4 since the conference tournament was moved to Sin City. The four losses have come to Saint Mary’s and no one else.
Few has dominated the Dons with a 54-4 record that includes 31 straight victories. Are the Dons ready to break that streak, or get close to doing so, sans star guard Marcus Williams? He’s the team’s second-leading scorer (15.1 PPG) and leading assist man (4.3), so the offense will likely struggle to keep pace with a Gonzaga team averaging 87.6 PPG and ranked seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom).
USF’s recipe for success was having two terrific guards (Williams and Malik Thomas) paired with a strong defense. The first factor is now null, and the second is in doubt considering the matchup.
Chris Gerlufsen’s team runs opponents off the line, instead allowing open 2-point jumpers (249th in mid-range field goal defense per Haslametrics) and looks at the rim (309th in near-proximity attempt rate). Gonzaga isn’t reliant on the 3-point shot, instead ranking Top 10 in efficiency from both the mid-range and the paint.
The Dons have been ineffective outside the Sobrato Center, ranking 319th in Haslametrics’ away from home metric. We just saw this matchup on a “neutral” court (Chase Center) and Gonzaga won by 20. All that’s changed since then is that USF is down one of its best players and the venue moved away from the Bay Area.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzaga -14.5
Under 156.5
These teams have played to the Over lately, going 4-0 O/U in the last four meetings. Still, I’m going the other way as Williams’ absence throws USF’s offense outlook into doubt — something that isn’t reflected in the total. He was huge in the first matchup, scoring 25 points while shooting 4-for-8 from downtown to keep the Dons within striking distance.
Sophomore guard Ryan Beasley picked up the slack with a massive showing in the quarterfinals against Washington State (29 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field and 4-for-8 from downtown). It’s tough to ask for a repeat performance from someone who stands 5-foot-10 and shot 28.2% from beyond the arc this season — especially since he’s playing a back-to-back on an injured ankle.
The WCC Championship has started with a tremendous run to the Over, going 6-1 O/U through seven games. That may create some additional value leading up to gametime if bettors fancy the Over. This is the first matchup at Orleans Arena that features two competent defenses.
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San Francisco vs Gonzaga odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga live odds
San Francisco vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco +14.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +750 | Gonzaga -1200
- Over/Under: Over 154 (-110) | Under 154 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
San Francisco vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Gonzaga is 32-0 in its last 32 games against San Francisco; 25 of those victories have been by double-digits. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Francisco vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch San Francisco vs Gonzaga
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Monday, 3-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
San Francisco vs Gonzaga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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