Stanford vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bruins' Struggles Continue Opposite the Cardinal

The UCLA Bruins are amid a complete freefall.

It has been unthinkable in recent years for a Mick Cronin team in Westwood to have a losing record after 13 games, but such is the depth of this squad’s despair that they are below .500 and the NCAA Tournament is looking like a pipe dream. 

After splitting two games on a road trip to Oregon to make it just one win in their last six games, the Bruins' next chance comes tonight at home against the Stanford Cardinal. 

Looking at college basketball odds, the Bruins are 4.5-point favorites while the total resides at 137.5 

Will UCLA get back on track, or is this squad destined for more sorrow? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the UCLA Bruins vs. the Stanford Cardinal on Wednesday, January 3 to find out.

Stanford vs UCLA best odds

Stanford vs UCLA picks and predictions

Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins racked up 58 wins in 72 games across the last two seasons for an 80.56% win percentage. It’s no surprise, then, that they still entered this season with high expectations despite turning over nearly its entire roster from a year ago. 

As it turns out, maybe this group simply isn’t up to par with Cronin’s past teams. With a losing record through 13 games and five losses in their last six, this team seems destined for a rebuilding season full of painful memories for a youthful squad that simply hasn’t gelled. 

One bright spot has been freshman guard Sebastian Mack (13.8 points per game) and he pairs with star sophomore big man Adem Bona (12.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG) to form one of the best high-low underclassmen duos in the nation. Both have experienced a lot of growing pains — Mack is shooting just 37.8% from the floor with more turnovers (2.0) than assists (1.5), while Bona hasn’t answered the call as a go-to scoring option down low. 

Dylan Anders (11.3 PPG) and Lazar Stefanovic (10 PPG) are also averaging double figures, although both have been mightily inefficient. They’re shooting an identical 28.6% from deep on high volume, both attempting over four trey balls per game. Andrews is shooting just 39.4% from the field overall while Stefanovic, an alleged sharpshooter, has gone ice cold at 33.1%. 

Cronin went foreign-heavy with this year’s recruiting haul and it hasn’t panned out. Big man Aday Mara and guard Jan Vide had enormous expectations but have been nonfactors, averaging a combined seven points while both have been in and out of the rotation. Berke Buyuktuncel has been a little better but has been unimpressive as an offensive weapon despite his myriad of tools, shooting just 38.2% from the field with more turnovers (1.1) than assists (1.0).  

The Bruins match up with the 6-6 Stanford Cardinal on tonight at Pauley Pavilion. Jerod Haase has played close to .500 basketball across seven-plus years on the job with a 118-115 record and this year’s squad is on a similar trajectory. 

Despite the unassuming record, the Cardinal are an experienced and talented lineup featuring four upperclassmen averaging double figures — forwards Maxime Raynaud (14), Spencer Jones (12.8), and Brandon Angel (12.7), and guard Michael Jones (11). Those four have been upstaged lately by freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle, who collected Pac-12 Freshman of the Week and AP National Player of the Week honors after erupting for 28 points and eight rebounds to lead his team in a shocking 100-82 upset over the fearsome Arizona Wildcats. 

The Cardinal erupted for a program-record 16 threes on just 25 attempts in the victory. What will the encore look like tonight? One thing is for sure — it’s been a huge boost to have Carlyle in the lineup as he’s played in just four games since gaining eligibility clearance from the NCAA. The five-star recruit could drastically change Stanford’s outlook in conference play, which is much-needed for a program that hasn’t gone dancing in a decade.

Simply put, I think that the Cardinal are a better team and I’ll back them against the spread here catching points. They offer a lot more potential this season with a five-out offense that offers more shooting options than any team in the Pac-12. Haase’s squad is heading in the right direction with Carylyle’s emergence, whereas UCLA is in freefall and the pieces are clearly not falling into place as imagined in the preseason. 

Playing at Pauley used to be something to fear, but that hasn’t been the case lately. After rattling off 29 straight home wins, the Bruins have now lost two straight after falling to lowly Cal State Northridge and Maryland. The Bruins are 0-5 against the spread across their last five home games and I’ll look to fade this team that has been overrated and disjointed. 

My best bet: Stanford +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Stanford vs UCLA same-game parlay

Stanford +4.5

Under 137.5

Adem Bona Under 14.5 points

+395 at FanDuel

At 4-8 O/U, UCLA has been a team that one can essentially blindly bet the Under in for every game and come out profitable as its offense is brutal and slow while the defense is still close to elite. 

Cronin’s squad ranks just 143rd in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, which makes it the worst side of the ball for either team in this matchup. They’ve operated at a snail’s pace (329th in adjusted tempo) thanks to a lack of proven depth and overall offensive firepower. Cronin doesn’t want this team to get into a track meet — he wants to slug it out. 

Lastly, Bona is one of my favorite players in college basketball. It’s like you’re watching someone with his life on the line when he takes the court — his combination of passion, grit, and defensive excellence is truly something to behold. 

Still, I’m targeting his Under here as his points prop is listed nearly two points above his season-long average and he matches up with a very tall Stanford lineup that has the size to counteract him in the post. The Cardinal rank just 290th in percentage of shots allowed at the rim (34.1% per Hoop-Math) as teams largely avoid the paint against these behemoths. 

Bona is a fouling machine who averages a foul every 7.85 minutes, which has routinely kept him from playing big minutes and realizing his full potential. I’ll need to see that change before my current expectations do as well. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Stanford vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis

Neither team has been proficient at covering spreads this season — Stanford is 6-6 against the spread while UCLA is just 5-7 ATS. Recent performance hasn’t been too encouraging either, as Stanford has covered one of its last three games while UCLA has covered two straight after dropping five in a row. 

This is an interesting matchup in that these teams are right next to each other in KenPom’s overall rankings — Stanford at 83rd while UCLA is one spot below at 84th. The Cardinal excel on offense (69th in adjusted efficiency) but struggle on defense (113th), while the opposite can be said of the Bruins (143rd on offense, 39th in defense). 

Neither team has had much good fortune and will hope that things change with the new year. UCLA ranks second-to-last (361st) in KenPom’s luck metric while Stanford isn’t far ahead at 335th. 

It’s natural to expect some shooting regression here for the Cardinal after a historic night against the Wildcats. That being said, this team is extremely dangerous offensively and should only improve with Carylye running the show. 

They’re deadly from range, canning 37.5% of their triples (39th nationally) and are so difficult to defend because basically everyone on the roster can shoot. Seven players are averaging at least one made three-pointer per game while one notable exception is Raynaud, who still leads the team in scoring and is shooting 86.4% from the foul line. 

I like everything I see about this offense and it’s why I’m backing the Cardinal ATS against a Bruins team that has way more questions than answers on that side of the ball. The Bruins have been so inept at shooting and play at such a slow pace that I tend to side with the Under as this clash of styles creates a bit of a standoff. 

Stanford vs UCLA betting trend to know

UCLA is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Stanford vs UCLA.

Stanford vs UCLA game info

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