Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Aidoo Eyes Redemption in Fayetteville

The Tennessee Volunteers look to mend a broken heart on Valentine’s Day when they visit the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

The Vols are still reeling from a 16-point loss at Texas A&M on Saturday and have a challenging foe waiting for them in Fayetteville tonight. 

Head coach Rick Barnes is 0-5 straight up (2-3 against the spread) at Arkansas during his nine seasons with Tennessee, yet college basketball odds have Barnes and the Volunteers laying a pile of points on the road.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this SEC showdown and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Arkansas on February 14.

Tennessee vs Arkansas best odds

Tennessee vs Arkansas picks and predictions

Rick Barnes needs a big bounce-back from his team, including Tennessee Volunteers big man Jonas Aidoo.

The 6-foot-11 junior logged only 20 minutes in the loss to the Aggies, scoring six points on 3-for-5 shooting and grabbing just five rebounds. It was his worst effort of conference play since an equally quiet showing in the loss to South Carolina, in which Aidoo scored six points on 2-of-8 success from the floor with five rebounds.

Both Aidoo and the Vols recovered from that loss to the Gamecocks with a solid outing against Kentucky. Tennessee busted the Wildcats 103-92 in Lexington and Aidoo finished with 11 points and 11 rebounds.

Aidoo is set up for another redemption spot in Fayetteville tonight, facing an Arkansas Razorbacks defense that ranks among the weakest in the SEC, coupled with a Hogs frontcourt lacking size inside.

Arkansas will likely be without starting 6-foot-10 center Trevon Brazile, who leads the team in rebounding. On the season, the Razorbacks rank 204th in rebound rate (49.5%) and face a very active Aidoo, who pulls down an average of 7.3 boards per game.

Player projections for Aidoo have his rebounding output as high as 8.9 boards for tonight’s stop in Arkansas, and his floor time should flirt with 30 minutes after logging 20 and 21 minutes in the losses to Texas A&M and South Carolina. My number comes out just north of eight rebounds, without adjusting for the Hogs' injury report.

His rebounding total isn’t too far off his season clip at 7.5 boards, with the Over priced as high as +120. Given the matchup and missing pieces for Arkansas’ interior, I like Aidoo to clean the glass for at least eight rebounds tonight.

My best bet: Jonas Aidoo Over 7.5 rebounds (+120 at bet365)

Tennessee vs Arkansas same-game parlay

Jonas Aidoo Over 7.5 rebounds

Jonas Aidoo 10+ points

Tennessee moneyline

+300 at bet365

Aidoo battles on the boards with the best of them and now faces a subpar rebounding team missing its biggest body on the glass.

Aidoo should be able to add a couple of offensive putbacks to his stat line and some models call for more than 13 points against a bad Arkansas defense.

The Volunteers need to come out swinging and put Saturday’s upset behind them. The Razorbacks have given them problems in the past, so we'll stick to the outright odds rather than the point spread.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Tennessee vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

With the Volunteers still stinging from Saturday’s 16-point flop at Texas A&M, oddsmakers opened Tennessee as big as a 9.5-point road favorite in Arkansas. 

Early play on the home side knocked a point off that line, and the market consensus is Tennessee -8.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. Covers Consensus shows only 47% of picks backing the road chalk tonight.

The Volunteers were coming off two very strong showings against LSU and Kentucky before a slow start in College Station dug a hole they couldn’t climb out of. Tennessee mustered only 28 points in the opening 20 minutes and fell behind by as many as 22 points. 

The Vols failed to cover as 2-point road faves and fell to 2-5 ATS in true road games this season. Tennessee, which ranks among the best two-way teams in the land, has a tough time getting its defense to travel. It limits foes to only 61 points against inside Thompson-Boling Arena but gives up an average of 75.5 points against as a visitor.

Following a disastrous start in SEC play, Arkansas has been playing better basketball in February with two wins in its last three games. Those two victories have, however, come against fellow conference pushovers Missouri and Georgia — bookending a 21-point loss at Louisiana State.

To the Hogs' defense, they have played a road-heavy schedule with three of their last five featuring the Razorbacks as visitors. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS on the road and 5-8 ATS inside Neville Arena, where it averages more than 79 points per game.

The Razorbacks have some defensive shortcomings, no matter the venue, and bleed close to 78 points against per game. Arkansas is still playing without 6-foot-10 sophomore Trevon Brazile, who was averaging 1.3 blocks and 6.5 rebounds per game.

Tonight’s Over/Under total opened at 150 points and climbed to 151.5 before buyback on the Under brought it back to the original post. Covers Consensus shows 64% of picks backing the Over.

Tennessee is 14-8-1 Over/Under on the year, with those defensive blips on the road leading to a 6-1 O/U mark away from Knoxville. The Volunteers ride a three-game Over streak into Wednesday’s game.

As for Arkansas, it is 16-7 O/U with a 10-2-1 O/U count at home. The Razorbacks have also topped the total in each of their last three games.

Tennessee vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Tennessee has played Over the total in 10 of its last 14 road games, winning +5.6 units for Over backers in that span. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Arkansas.

Tennessee vs Arkansas game info

Tennessee vs Arkansas key injuries

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