It’s Senior Night in Oxford tonight, and Mississippi will welcome Tennessee to town in an important SEC game for both programs.
The Vols are coming off a thrilling win over Alabama, and a win could secure a double-bye in the upcoming conference tournament. However, the Rebels need a signature win for their resume, and adding a fourth Quad-1 win in conference play would be a massive feather in their cap.
My Tennessee vs Ole Miss predictions break down why it should be a disappointing final home game for the Rebels. Read more in my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 5.
Tennessee vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -2.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Mississippi Rebels ended a three-game skid with a narrow victory over Oklahoma, but there wasn’t much I took from that result that gave me confidence in Chris Beard’s team. They allowed an average Sooners offense to score 1.18 points per possession, marking the third straight game of allowing 1.10 PPP or more.
That victory at home also required their second-best eFG% output of their SEC slate. Mississippi made 20 of 31 shots inside the arc, their best showing in six games, and needed Sean Pedulla to go off with 26 points on the back of five successful 3-point shots.
But the win also continued a trend for the Rebels, in which their only victories of late are coming against poor defensive squads. In fact, since beating Alabama on January 14, they’ve played five teams in the top half of the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve lost all five games, losing by eight or more in the last three such contests.
While Mississippi plays terrific high-pressure defense, there’s a glaring deficiency on the glass. The Rebels rank 13th in the conference in defensive rebound rate, and the other end of the floor sees them dead last in getting offensive boards. Against a team like the Tennessee Volunteers, that’s a recipe for disaster.
The Vols have the best ADJDE in the SEC and the second-best in all of college basketball. They are also first in eFG%, second in 3-point%, and third in block rate nationally. Scoring on this defense without being able to get second opportunities is extremely difficult.
Making matters worse, Pedulla will likely be matched up with Jahmai Mashack, one of the best on-ball guards in the country. This will not only limit his ability to put up points but also to run an offense that commits the fewest turnovers in the conference per play.
While the Rebels tend to force a lot of turnovers, the Vols have multiple guards capable of bringing the ball up the floor. Without the fast-break points that come from those turnovers, this Mississippi offense tends to bog down.
The other problem is that they’ll be facing an offense that can expose some of their weaknesses. The Rebels sit 320th in defensive spacing according to ShotQuality, and they are taking on a Top 25 unit in the Vols. Tennessee’s outside shooting has also improved over the past few weeks, and both Felix Okpara and Igor Milicic Jr haul in offensive rebounds at a solid rate.
I expect the Vols to control the glass at both ends, force the Rebels to play at their pace, and win this one with ease.
Tennessee vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -2.5
Igor Milicic Over 6.5 rebounds
Chaz Lanier Over 4.5 rebounds
If Mississippi struggles at the offensive end, it will mean quite a few missed shots — and plenty of rebounding opportunities for Tennessee.
The only teams worse than the Rebels at grabbing defensive boards in the SEC are LSU, Georgia, and Auburn. Milicic pulled down four offensive rebounds last week against LSU and seven earlier this season in a win over Georgia. He’s had three or more offensive boards in six conference outings, including at least seven boards in five of those contests.
Chaz Lanier’s rebounding has improved quite a bit over the second half of the conference slate. His four rebounds against Alabama ended a run of seven consecutive games in which Lanier grabbed at least five boards. He had nine against LSU last week and won’t have a problem getting five tonight.
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Tennessee vs Mississippi odds
Tennessee vs Mississippi live odds
Tennessee vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) | Mississippi +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -170 | Mississippi +145
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Ole Miss is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs Mississippi.
How to watch Tennessee vs Mississippi
| Location | The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Maryland vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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