One of the marquee matchups on the hardwood this Saturday occurs in the SEC as the No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers (14-1, 1-1 SEC) visit the Texas Longhorns (11-4, 0-2 SEC).
It’ll be a homecoming of sorts for Vols head coach Rick Barnes, who spent 17 years in Austin and compiled a 402-180 record.
How will Tennessee respond to a surprising, humiliating 30-point loss to Florida earlier in the week?
Check out our Tennessee vs. Texas prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, January 11.
Tennessee vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Under 136 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers and Texas Longhorns meet on the court for the first time as SEC opponents, and the intrigue going into the matchup couldn’t be much higher.
The Vols are looking for a quick response after Tuesday’s 30-point loss in Gainsville, while the Longhorns are looking to avoid a 0-3 start to league play with a warm welcome for the school’s former coach for nearly two decades, Rick Barnes.
Tennessee is led by an elite defense (third in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency) and an OK offense (35th). The big question surrounding this team is whether or not there’s enough offensive firepower this year now that Dalton Knecht is in Los Angeles and not Knoxville.
Tuesday’s performance against the Gators made that abundantly clear, as the Vols couldn’t hit a shot, going 21.4% from the field and 13.8% from three. Texas has a strong rim protector in big man Kadin Shedrick and ranks ninth in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent (per Haslametrics).
That should keep Tennessee from living in the paint. The Vols are a good mid-range shooting team, but those shots are unreliable. It’s difficult to trust their sharpshooting skills on the road after such a poor performance against the Gators.
On the flip side, Texas has thrived offensively by hitting threes at a 40.2% clip. Tennessee has a ton of length and plays very hard and cohesively defensively, holding opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage (24.6%) in the country.
Texas’ offense works best when it can create dribble penetration with guards Tre Johnson, Jordan Pope, and Tramon Mark. That’s not the way to beat a Tennessee defense that suffocates ball-handlers with its tenacity, length, and athleticism.
Texas has not beaten a single opponent that ranks higher than 90th in KenPom. Its offense has fallen flat against some of the better teams on the schedule, scoring 65 points against UConn and 60 against Texas A&M — not to mention 63 points against an NC State team ranked 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Horns did manage 82 points against Auburn last time out but the final score is misleading. Auburn was dominating the game 61-40 with 12 minutes remaining, and then Texas hit a lot of shots when the game was all but out of reach.
This one should be played at a snail’s pace, as Tennessee ranks 308th in adjusted tempo while Texas isn’t far ahead at 213th. The Vols’ ability to threaten Texas’ dribble penetration will slow the game down, and their ability to grab misses (56.1% rebounding percentage, 13th nationally) will limit second-chance looks.
Give me the Under.
Tennessee vs Texas same-game parlay
Under 136.5
Tennessee -3.5
Texas isn’t a particularly bad team, but the Longhorns also haven’t done anything impressive this season with zero marquee wins. Perhaps this is a chance to earn a signature win, but I’ll need to see them prove it first before believing.
Tennessee is one of the better teams in the country and will be ticked off after Tuesday’s drubbing in Gainesville. The Gators are a legitimate national title contender, and Texas is not. Theoretically, this matchup could allow Tennessee a chance to tweak some things that went wrong against the Gators.
The Vols are 9-5-1 ATS this season and have routinely exceeded expectations. Texas hasn’t gained much momentum yet this year, and the Moody Center may not be at its most-rowdy, especially considering the football team’s defeat in the Cotton Bowl a night ago.
The Vols have a big statistical edge on defense and on the boards, two things that usually travel well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tennessee vs Texas odds
Tennessee vs Texas live odds
Tennessee vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -4 (-110) | Texas +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee (-182) | Texas (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 136 (-110) | Under 136 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Texas betting trend to know
Tennessee is 0-6 O/U in its last six road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Texas.
How to watch Tennessee vs Texas
| Location: | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Tennessee vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
