Texas vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks and Predictions: Longhorns Best In-State Rivals

The streaking Texas Longhorns will face a dangerous Texas Tech Red Raiders team that has already knocked off two ranked teams on its home court when the Big 12 rivals meet in Lubbock on Monday.

No. 5 Texas (20-5) leads the conference standings and has won five of its last seven. Texas Tech (13-12) has just two wins in Big 12 play, but both came at home against highly-regarded opponents.

The Longhorns are clearly the better team on paper here, but the Red Raiders have been tough at home all season long and played Texas tough in their first meeting.

We’ll break down how the rematch might play out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Texas Tech on February 13.

Texas vs Texas Tech best odds

Texas vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

After speculation that the firing of head coach Chris Beard could derail its season, Texas has more than proven otherwise. Interim head coach Rodney Terry has guided the Longhorns to a Top-10 ranking and a 9-3 record in Big 12 play, the best mark in the conference. 

Texas has gotten the job done on both ends of the court, but its stellar offense has been the biggest driver of its success this season. The Longhorns are scoring 80 points per game and are shooting 47.9% from the field. Despite their fast pace, they also hold opponents to just 68.1 points per game, producing one of the largest average margins of victory in the nation.

By contrast, Texas Tech has been nothing short of mediocre this season, at least on the surface. The Red Raiders are just 2-10 in conference play and bulked up their win total by rolling over a weak non-conference schedule. 

So how did Texas Tech nearly upset Texas in Austin last month? The Red Raiders went 8-for-21 from 3-point range and also outrebounded the Longhorns 40-32 on the night. They jumped on Texas early to get a big lead, but held their own even down the stretch, never letting the game get away from them late. 

While Texas Tech has scored some major upsets this season, those wins didn’t involve those same factors. Against Iowa State, the Red Raiders forced 17 turnovers and then turned it on late, outscoring their opponents 49-32 in the second half to force overtime before eventually winning.

They showed the same late-game heroics in a home upset of Kansas State on Saturday, finishing the game with a 7-2 run and holding Kansas State to just two field goals in the last five minutes.

It's unlikely Texas Tech can rely on the same gameplan to hang around with Texas again on Monday. That means that the hopes of a Red Raiders win are hanging on the idea that they have something at home and are able to consistently overperform against better teams on their floor.

A two-game sample isn’t enough to convince me of that. In the last month, the Red Raiders also have a 15-point home loss to West Virginia and a 7-point home defeat to Baylor on their record.

Overall, Texas Tech has won just three of its last 13 games. It’s great to get two big wins, but a couple of upsets don’t completely change what this team is — the bottom feeder of the Big 12.

Texas is rolling and this is a game in which the Longhorns should be able to put their in-state rivals back in their place. My pick is Texas -3.5.

My best bet: Texas -3.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Texas vs Texas Tech spread analysis

The line on tonight’s game opened at 3.5 points, but there has been some movement toward the Longhorns over the course of the day. While you can still find that original line at a few books, the majority have switched to Texas -4, and there are even some already at Texas -4.5.

Neither team has been particularly impressive against the spread this season. Texas is just 11-14 ATS on the year, while Texas Tech is 10-14-1 ATS, including a 5-9 mark against the number at home.

That last number might surprise you, considering I talked about a couple of big upsets for the Red Raiders earlier. However, there have been just as many disappointing performances, even if they resulted in close early season wins against what should have been outmatched mid-major and low-major opponents. 

Sure, Texas Tech has covered in four of its last five games, but that looks like a short-term trend that’s due for some regression. Those four covers were all close, while they missed the mark by 17.5 points in their February 4 loss to Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas is meeting expectations in conference play, covering in five of their last six Big 12 games. 

As I broke down above, Texas is the clear play here. Lay the points with the Longhorns.

Texas vs Texas Tech Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 145.5 points. The public seems pretty happy with that number, though a few books have moved it up to 146 as of noon on Monday.

We’ve already talked about how Texas plays at a quick pace and scores plenty of points, but the Red Raiders can get on the scoreboard as well, averaging a solid 73.8 points per outing. Texas Tech has put up over 70 points in three of its last five Big 12 games and has hit the over in four of those games.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns continue to play to big totals, even as sportsbooks begin to catch up with this trend. Texas has hit the Over in four of its last six games, and in five of those games, it has played to totals of at least 147 points.

While Terry has emphasized a better defensive approach in Austin, the pace of play has still resulted in high-scoring games on most nights, with Texas simply outlasting its opponents most of the time. 

The first game between these teams saw Texas shoot just 43.4% from the field and 28.6% from behind the arc. Despite the Longhorns’ struggles, the teams still combined for 142 points. Assuming a more typical performance from Texas on Monday, I think the Over is the right call here.

Texas vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

Texas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Texas Tech.

Texas vs Texas Tech game info

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