The UCF Knights got the first one out of the way in the Big 12 Tournament bracket. Now, they’ll have to do something they couldn’t do in the regular season to keep their dance dreams and March Madness odds alive — beat the BYU Cougars.
The Cougars, ranked fifth in the conference tournament odds, led the Big 12 in scoring, powered by one of the best 3-point shooting attacks in all of college hoops.
They’re favored by 5.5 points in the college basketball odds when action tips at 12:30 p.m. ET to kick off Round 2 action from T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City.
Read below for my free UCF vs BYU college basketball picks, and we’ll tell you why we’re thinking upset (or at least a cover), with Texas Tech waiting in the wings in the quarterfinals.
UCF vs BYU best odds
UCF vs BYU picks and predictions
While the competition was far from fierce, the UCF Knights dominated the Big 12 Tournament opener, crushing Oklahoma State 77-62, running up a 27-point first-half lead against the Cowboys and never looking back.
Ranked dead last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting at 31.3%, the Knights drilled an impressive 9-for-18 against OKST, while also going +11 from the free-throw line. Their vaunted defense, which allows only 66.8 points per game (48th) and limits teams to 40.7% shooting (34th) was strong in KC, holding the Cowboys to 37.1% and forcing 13 turnovers, part of the reason the Knights piled up 17 fast-break points.
They’ll get their third and final crack at the BYU Cougars this year, who enter the tourney winning four of six. BYU won both matchups against UCF in two very different games, stylistically.
The first, a 63-58 grinder, gave BYU its first-ever Big 12 win. It wasn’t pretty, as it shot only 40.4% from the field, but a win's a win.
The second was a 90-88 shootout, a game that took off in the second half after BYU had built a 13-point lead after 20 minutes. UCF outscored the Cougars 62-51 in the second half but fell short.
The Cougars ring it up from deep. They attempt 32.2 threes per game and hit 11.3, both ranking second in the NCAA. That’s partly why BYU is KenPom’s 16th-ranked team and 12th in offensive efficiency.
On the year, BYU is 22-2 when shooting 32% or better from long range, and it did that in both wins over UCF, going 9-for-26 (34.6%) in the first game and 8-for-23 in the second (34.7%).
UCF stayed in both games despite sputtering offensive performances. The Knights shot 29.3% in the opening matchup, including a woeful 3-for-18 mark from deep. While they shot better than 50% from the field in the rematch, they were still only 6-for-22 from distance.
If their offensive output travels with their defense to the second round, their athleticism will give the Cougars issues. Couple that with the fact it’s just hard to beat a team three times in a row, and I like the Knights keeping this a tight and down-to-the-wire affair.
My best bet: UCF +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
UCF vs BYU same-game parlay
UCF +5.5
Trevin Knell Over 1.5 made threes
Ibrahima Diallo Over 5.5 rebounds
We know the Cougars will go bombs away, so we can’t include a same-game parlay without taking someone from BYU to connect from deep.
With oddsmakers keeping the makes line at 1.5, I like guard Trevin Knell to come through. Knell is second on the team in 3-pointers, but he’s the most accurate of all the volume shooters, hitting at a 39.2% clip.
It’s been a mixed bag against UCF. In the January 13 rock fight, he went 4-for-9 from beyond the arc. In the February 13 shootout, he went 1-for-5. Go figure. Still, Knell should be prominent in this biggie, and I like him to finish somewhere in the middle.
That’s the same rationale with UCF big man Ibrahima Diallo, who is coming off an 11-rebound performance against Oklahoma State. When he could stay on the floor at a less frenetic pace, Diallo pulled down a season-best 19 boards against BYU.
However, he only logged 19 minutes in the rematch and finished with three. UCF is better equipped to keep its big man involved this time, and 5.5 boards is a very makeable number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCF vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has stayed almost exclusively at BYU -5.5, though a few books opened with the Cougars as 6-point favorites.
Both teams have identical 19-12 records against the spread, though UCF has covered in both matchups this season.
The total started at 144.5 but has climbed to as high as 146.5.
BYU has alternated between Over and Under in seven straight contests, while the Knights have hit the Over in two straight games. Both teams have identical 15-16-0 Over records.
UCF vs BYU betting trend to know
Central Florida has covered the spread in five of its last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCF vs. BYU.
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UCF vs BYU game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 13, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2, ESPN+ |
UCF vs BYU key injuries
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