UCLA vs Colorado Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back the Under in Boulder

The UCLA Bruins (24-4) look to put the finishing touches on their Pac-12 regular season championship with a trip to Boulder to face the Colorado Buffaloes.

With Arizona’s surprise loss to Arizona State on Saturday, the Bruins now have three fewer losses than any other team in the conference — a likely insurmountable lead. 

Colorado (15-14) is fighting to stay above .500 in what's been a massively disappointing season.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for UCLA vs Colorado below to find out my best bet.

UCLA vs Colorado best odds

UCLA vs Colorado picks and predictions

UCLA has all but wrapped up the Pac-12 regular season championship. It’s nearly time for Mick Cronin and company to set their sights on bigger and better things. Most bracketologists currently have the Bruins as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, although there is room to move up.

They’re in fine form, winning seven straight games to rise all the way up to second overall in KenPom. The Bruins check in at 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and second in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Jaime Jaquez leads the way as one of the best and most experienced players in America, averaging 17 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Jaylen Clark (13.1 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (12.4 ppg) are the other two veterans averaging double figures, while Amari Bailey (10.1 ppg) and Adem Bona (8.0) are two heavily relied-on freshmen. 

This game is supposed to be a formality for the Bruins. If they win, they clinch the outright Pac-12 regular season title. This is a possible Quad 1 victory that will aid the Bruins in a quest for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Colorado is headed in a different direction. It’s been a disastrous season for Tad Boyle’s bunch, who sit fourth from last in the conference standings with a 7-11 record. 

The Buffs are not in fine form, having lost three of their last four, including an 84-65 blowout loss at home to USC on Thursday night. This is the first time in five years that they will finish Pac-12 play with a losing record. 

The first time these two met this season was Jan. 14, when UCLA overcame a three-point halftime deficit to win comfortably, 68-54. There’s reason to believe we could be in store for another low-scoring game in the rematch.

Both of these teams have played to the Under in Pac-12 play. UCLA is 11-6 to the Under against conference foes, while Colorado is 12-6. 

The Bruins like to slow the pace down, ranking just 234th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) while allowing only 59.8 ppg. They shouldn’t have much difficulty limiting the effectiveness of a Colorado team shooting just 43.4% from the field (255th) and 31.4% from behind the arc (326th).

Despite Colorado’s struggles, Boyle’s squad is still terrific defensively. The Buffaloes rank 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Under is 10-4 in Colorado’s last 14 games overall, cashing in five straight games against a team with a winning record. 

UCLA has also cashed five straight Unders when playing a team with a winning record. The Bruins are 12-5 to the Under in their last 17 overall. 

Give me the Under.

My best bet: Under 134.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

UCLA vs Colorado spread analysis

UCLA currently resides between -6 and -6.5, depending on the book.

Cronin’s squad has been underrated in the betting market this season. The Bruins have a glistening 16-11 ATS record overall. They have been superb lately in away games, going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road battles.

Colorado, on the other hand, is a miserable 11-17 ATS this season. Boyle’s squad has faltered lately, with a grotesque 3-8-1 ATS run in its last 12 games. Typically a team that enjoys a strong homecourt advantage, the Buffs haven’t even been able to defend the CU Events Center, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. 

I don’t love the motivational spot for the Bruins in this matchup considering they all but have the Pac-12 regular season crown sewn up. That being said, they are the superior side, and could win this one going away.

The motivation isn’t spectacular for Colorado either, as the team has suffered one crushing defeat after another. This isn’t a “rally the troops” spot as the team’s last home game, as the Buffs host rival Utah to close out the regular season next week.

UCLA vs Colorado Over/Under analysis

The current total is set between 134 and 134.5, depending on where you look.

Just how good is UCLA’s defense? The Bruins are proficient in defending the two best shots in basketball — three-pointers and layups. Per Haslametrics, they rank 14th in three-point defense, and sixth in near-proximity defense. 

The guards do a terrific job pressuring opponents and running them off the arc, forcing tough shots when they do decide to fire. They do a terrific job forcing turnovers, with 16.4 created per game. Bona has developed into one of the best rim protectors in the game. 

When the Bruins have the ball offensively, they prefer to live within the arc. They rank fourth in two-point field goal attempts per game (a remarkable figure considering the slow pace at which they operate), but just 331st in three-point attempts per game. 

One feather in Colorado’s cap is that it is elite at defending the rim, ranking ninth in near-proximity defense (Haslametrics). That should serve the Buffaloes well against an offense that ranks 20th in near-proximity shooting. 

UCLA vs Colorado betting trend to know

UCLA is 12-5 to the Under in its last 17 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Colorado.

UCLA vs Colorado game info

UCLA vs Colorado key injuries

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