The No. 10 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the No. 15 seed LSU Tigers in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Wednesday.
The Tigers have struggled on offense but they have one player getting the job done in Cam Carter, and my LSU vs. Mississippi State predictions are betting on him to carry the scoring load tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 12, with tipoff scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN.
LSU vs Mississippi State prediction
Who will win LSU vs Mississippi State?
With the Mississippi State Bulldogs opening as 8.5-point favorites, this is the widest spread in the first round of this tournament. That accurately reflects the stark difference between these teams. The LSU Tigers went just 3-15 in conference play with 10 of those losses coming by double-digits.
The Bulldogs didn't look great down the stretch but were still far more competitive than LSU and have gone 7-9 against Quad 1 foes.
The Bulldogs are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four meetings with all of those wins coming by at least 10 points. That includes their previous clash on March 1, when the Bulldogs cruised to a 81-69 victory at home. They should be able to win again versus an LSU side that struggles to score.
My best bet
Cam Carter Over 16.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Bulldogs have stumbled into the postseason, dropping four of their final five regular season games. They were torched on defense in those defeats, surrendering 111 points to Alabama while giving up more than 85 points to Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma.
Their one strong defensive performance during that span came at home against the Tigers on March 1 when they held them to 69 points. Despite limiting LSU as a team, they were unable to slow down senior guard Carter, who scored 23 points while shooting 9-for-16 from the floor and 5-for-10 from deep.
Carter leads LSU with 16.5 points per game on 43/40/86 shooting splits. Jordan Sears is the only other Tiger averaging more than 9.0 ppg and he's putting up a modest 12.0 ppg on just 37.6% shooting.
As LSU's only reliable shot-maker, Carter has a sky-high usage rate and takes plenty of field goal attempts. Half his shots come from beyond the arc, where he drains 2.5 threes per game.
Carter is coming off a rough performance against Texas A&M's highly-rated defense but he should bounce against a Mississippi State side that has struggled to guard the perimeter.
The Bulldogs were second-last in the SEC in opponent 3-point percentage (37.5%) during conference play. They also sit outside the Top 300 at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
The Bulldogs have gotten lit up by lead guards lately. DJ Wagner scored 24 points against them in their season finale while Jeremiah Fears, Tramon Mark, Tre Johnson, Mark Sears, and Chris Youngblood also dropped 20+ points against them down the stretch. Expect Carter to follow suit.
LSU vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Cam Carter Over 16.5 points
LSU +8.5
Over 147.5
After starting the season off strong, the Bulldogs went just 5-11 ATS in their final 16 regular season games.
While the Tigers have struggled this season, they've gone 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS when Carter scores at least 17 points. The Over has also cashed in nine of those 14 contests.
Since I'm backing Carter to have a big game, it also makes sense to take LSU with the points and play the Over 147.5 in this SGP. Especially since the Over is also 9-2 in Mississippi State's last 11 games.
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LSU vs Mississippi State odds
LSU vs Mississippi State live odds
LSU vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: LSU +8.5 | Mississippi State -8.5
- Moneyline: LSU +350 | Mississippi State -450
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
LSU vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last five contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch LSU vs Mississippi State
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
LSU vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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