The North Carolina Tar Heels and Notre Dame Fighting Irish face off in Round 2 of the ACC Tournament this afternoon.
The Tar Heels need a win to put themselves in a good position for NCAA Tournament consideration, and Notre Dame will hope to keep the magic rolling for another day. My Notre Dame vs. North Carolina predictions are gearing up for an Under on the scoreboard.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12th ahead of this 2:30 p.m. tip.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction
Who will win Notre Dame vs North Carolina?
North Carolina has been the clear fourth-best team in the ACC since the start of February and will get the job done here. Even when the Heels weren't playing well earlier this season, they managed a narrow win against the Irish. In that game, they had a horrific shooting day from the field. Naturally, they've gotten some significant shot regression and have the sixth-best 3-point percentage in the sport since Feb. 1st.
My best bet: Under 149.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It would be speculative to say something is going on with the sight lines at the Spectrum Center, but it's worth mentioning, especially when you consider just how low-scoring all three games were yesterday to open the ACC Tournament. Beyond that, though, I see value in the total here, and my projection made this total 146.5.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have done a great job for the last month imposing their game style on opponents. I talked about this in the lead-up to the Pittsburgh matchup, and the same holds true here. This may be a better opponent than the Panthers, but it's still one that wants to speed things up and expose a leaky transition defense. Notre Dame has stopped many teams from doing that, including this North Carolina Tar Heels squad, which it held to five possessions below its season average. There are other things at play as well.
Sophomore Braeden Shrewsberry played in the first matchup, chipped in 16 points, and won't be out today. Shrewsberry suffered a season-ending injury early in February, and since then, the Notre Dame defense has actually gotten better.
Let's put a few things in perspective.
These teams squared off earlier this season, with 147 points scored and a possession total below 70. Since then, Notre Dame's defense has improved, and it's lost its second-best scorer. North Carolina's defensive efficiency has jumped 22 spots in that time frame as well. That doesn't even begin to mention that there are almost certainly some environmental aspects in the Spectrum Center causing shooters more difficulty.
With all that said, this total has only moved four points off what it was for the first meeting and is just three points shorter than most major analytic sites. It's adjusted, but not by enough.
North Carolina has become reliant on the three since it's shot it so well over the last few months, but Notre Dame is great at running opponents off the perimeter. On the other side, Notre Dame has one of the longest average possession lengths in the sport.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 149.5
Elliot Cadeau Over 5.5 assists
Elliot Cadeau managed six assists in the first matchup, and North Carolina was without the services of one of its most dangerous players, Seth Trimble. Notre Dame's weakest point defensively comes in terms of defending perimeter cutters. Expect Cadeau's assists total to only benefit from that, as he's generally been the primary facilitator in such sets.
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Notre Dame vs North Carolina odds
Notre Dame vs North Carolina live odds
Notre Dame vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Notre Dame +8.5 (-110) | North Carolina -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame +350 | North Carolina -450
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Notre Dame vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+9.50 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Notre Dame vs North Carolina
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Notre Dame vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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