We've got a marquee matchup to look forward to as the No. 22 UCLA Bruins face the No. 14 Gonzaga Bulldogs at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.
Oddsmakers have Gonzaga listed as a 4-point favorite, and our aligned UCLA vs. Gonzaga predictions expect the Bulldogs to eventually pull away.
Check out our college basketball picks below for more on Saturday's showdown.
UCLA vs Gonzaga prediction
My best bet
Gonzaga -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a roster built to go far in the NCAA Tournament. Mark Few has assembled a team with strong guard, wing, and post play, and they’re a treat to watch.
It all starts with senior point guard Ryan Nembhard, who averages a nation-leading 10.2 assists per game. His steadying hand gives the Zags a level of calm, and the offense has been absolutely humming. They lead the country with 89.2 ppg and are deadly efficient, ranking third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
Three big men see heavy minutes in Graham Ike (15.5 ppg), Braden Huff (12.7 ppg), and Ben Gregg (10.0 ppg). Not many teams can say that they have three bigs averaging double figures, and this Zags trio is as well-rounded and well-versed as any you’ll find.
The other contributors consist of Khalif Battle (12.4 ppg), Nolan Hickman (10.5 ppg), Michael Ajayi (6.9 ppg), and Dusty Stromer (6.1 ppg). All four bring their own merits — Battle is a microwave scorer, Hickman is a secondary creator, Ajayi averaged 17.2 ppg as a freshman at Pepperdine a year ago, and Stromer was a Top-50 prospect.
Gonzaga’s three losses are all explainable. UConn is the defending national champ, Kentucky is one of the few teams with an offense capable of keeping pace with the Zags, and West Virginia was a different team before Tucker DeVries’ injury.
The UCLA Bruins are no easy out, ranked within the Top 25 and winning nine of their last 10. Their best wins are over Arizona (57-54) and Oregon (73-71) in two coin flip games, and Gonzaga is another test altogether.
Both teams are well rested, having last played a week ago. Few’s squad should be ready to run and gun at full capacity, and it’s a danger to anyone when that’s the case.
The Bruins are tough defensively (fourth in adjusted efficiency) but don’t have the horses to keep up offensively (60th). I’m betting that Gonzaga’s superior offense allows them to pull away over the course of 40 minutes.
UCLA vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
Gonzaga -4.5
Over 148.5
This will be a battle of styles, as Gonzaga likes to get out and run while UCLA likes to grind things down to a halt. Since the Zags minus the points is our best bet, we’re taking their style of play to win out.
The Bulldogs check in at 55th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. They don’t want to get into the mud with a Mick Cronin team, so I expect Nembhard and company to push the ball up the floor and work for some quick looks on offense.
UCLA doesn’t have many weaknesses defensively, but the Bruins do allow a lot of threes and looks at the rim. Per Haslametrics, they rank 255th in 3-point rate allowed against the average opponents and 228th in near-proximity attempt rate. Gonzaga will be happy to oblige, ranking third nationally in field goal percentage at the rim (68.7% per Hoop-Math).
On the flip side, UCLA takes a lot of midrange shots. The Bruins lead the country in the percentage of shots taken on 2-point jumpers (41.6%) and will look to take advantage of a Gonzaga defense that typically funnels opponents into those kinds of looks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Gonzaga odds
UCLA vs Gonzaga live odds
UCLA vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: UCLA +4 | Gonzaga -4
- Moneyline: UCLA +150 | Gonzaga -180
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
UCLA vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Gonzaga is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games played away from home. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch UCLA vs Gonzaga
| Location: | Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
UCLA vs Gonzaga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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