The No. 7 UCLA Bruins head to Corvallis as a hefty favorite over Oregon State Beavers.
The Bruins still have some work to do to wrap up a Top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which would likely land them in Sacramento for the first weekend.
Mick Croninin’s side sits atop the conference with a 10-2 record and will look to hold off Arizona. Will they prove dominant against a struggling Beavers team?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for UCLA vs. Oregon State on Thursday, February 9 to find out.
UCLA vs Oregon State best odds
UCLA vs Oregon State picks and predictions
UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country for the majority of the season. It’s been wash, rinse, and repeat for Cronin in the Pac-12. With a 19-4 record overall and 10-2 mark in conference play, the Bruins have goals of winning the Pac-12 and locking up a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Two familiar faces in Jaime Jaquez (16.3 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.2 ppg) lead the way. Both Jaylen Clark (13.1 ppg) and David Singleton (10.3 ppg) also average double digits, while freshman big man Adem Bona (9.8 ppg) isn’t far behind. Clark has made his presence felt on opposing ballhandlers this season by averaging an impressive 3.4 steals per game.
The Bruins are third overall in KenPom, ranking 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency.
UCLA has been able to remain a profitable team in the betting market despite such high expectations this season, going 13-10 ATS overall.
On the other side of things, it’s been a massive struggle for Wayne Tinkle and Oregon State. The Beavers have lost three of their last four games to drop to 9-15 overall and 3-10 in conference play.
They try to play at a slow pace to compensate for their overall lack of talent and experience, but it hasn’t worked. Tinkle’s squad ranks 204th overall in KenPom, checking in at 266th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 130th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Beavers are hitting a rough portion of their schedule, having just lost 84-52 at Arizona and now hosting both of the L.A. schools. Things could go from bad to worse, and there’s little reason to expect otherwise ad they’ve been largely uncompetitive this season other than in small bursts.
UCLA is the superior team in this matchup and the deserved hefty road favorite. Give me the Bruins to handle business.
My best bet: UCLA -14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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UCLA vs Oregon State spread analysis
Be sure to shop around, as the spread currently ranges from -14.5 to -15.5 depending on the book. I’d recommend playing the Bruins up to -16.5.
UCLA’s offense has taken some grief from fans this season, but it's still among the Pac-12’s best. The Bruins score 74.7 ppg while ranking 72nd in field goal shooting (46.5%) and 96th in 3-point shooting (35.8%). The Beavers are nothing special defensively, ranking 125th in both 2-point defense (48.1%) and 3-point defense (32.5%).
UCLA is elite defensively, surrendering just 60.3 ppg while holding opponents to 41% from the field and 30.6% from behind the arc.
It does a decent job of cleaning the defensive glass, ranking 55th in opponent rebounding per game. Contrast that with Oregon State — who ranks 348th in rebounding — and there shouldn’t be many second chances for an inefficient and ineffective Beavers offense.
UCLA holds a sizable advantage on both sides of the ball.
UCLA vs Oregon State Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 125.5 and currently resides between 123.5 and 124.5 depending on the location. Is such a low total deserved?
UCLA’s defense should control this game if it comes out with any intensity at all in a road game against an inferior foe.
The Bruins rank ninth in scoring defense, 50th in field goal defense, and 34th in 3-point defense. They should have little trouble slowing down an Oregon State offense that ranks 352nd in scoring, 300th in field goal shooting, and 223rd in 3-point shooting.
Cronin’s side has been trending toward the Under, going 9-3 in its last 12 games overall. The Bruins are also 7-1 to the Under in their last eight games following an ATS win. Thanks to a moribund offensive operating at a snail's pace, Oregon State has cashed six straight Unders. The Beavers are 9-2 to the Under in their last 11 home games.
Don’t expect to see either team get out and run with any consistency. Oregon State checks in at 339th in adjusted tempo (KenPom), while UCLA isn’t much faster at 253rd.
The books are wise to the chase, setting the total down in the metaphorical basement. I still lean to the Under, although there isn’t a ton of margin to work with.
UCLA vs Oregon State betting trend to know
The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Oregon State.
UCLA vs Oregon State game info
| Location: | Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR |
| Date: | Thursday, February 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC12 Network |
