Cooper Flagg and the No. 3 ranked Duke Blue Devils host the Miami Hurricanes in college basketball action tonight.
The Canes have been getting absolutely shredded on the defensive end of the floor, and my Miami vs. Duke predictions expect another ugly loss for their squad.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this lopsided ACC matchup on Tuesday, January 14.
Miami vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Duke team total Over 85.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Duke Blue Devils have reeled off 10-straight wins, none more impressive than a victory at home against then No. 1 Auburn last month. The Blue Devils are second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.
While they had some issues integrating multiple freshmen on offense early in the season, their chemistry on that side of the ball has significantly improved.
Cooper Flagg is now consistently filling up the hoop while Kon Kneuppel is averaging 15.0 points per game and shooting 40.5% from deep in his last five games. Meanwhile, 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach is coming off a career-high 19-point performance, with five-star freshman Isaiah Evans becoming a microwave scorer off the bench.
They should cook a Miami Hurricanes team that has lost 12 of their last 13 games, going just 2-11 against the spread during that span. That stretch includes defeats at home against Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern, who both rank outside the Top 250 of KenPom ratings.
The Canes are 308th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and sit outside the Top 300 in opponent effective field goal percentage (55%) and opponent turnover rate (15.1%). They've been even worse on defense lately, surrendering 80+ points in each of their last three games despite facing weak offensive teams in Wake Forest, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have scored at least 86 points in three of their last four games and have enough depth to keep putting up points with their backups.
Cooper Flagg pick: Downtown Dagger
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 1.5 threes made (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
Cooper Flagg is coming off an incredible performance against Notre Dame, where he scored 42 points with seven rebounds and six assists. The consensus first pick overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, Flagg leads Duke in points (19.1), rebounds (8.3), assists (3.9), steals (1.6), and blocks (1.3) per game.
Flagg has become more comfortable as a go-to scorer, having reached 20+ points in six of his last nine games. The Wooden Award favorite is getting more confident in his perimeter shooting and has drained at least a pair of threes in four of his last six starts.
Flagg attempted a career-high six 3-pointers against the Irish and knocked down four of them. He now faces a Miami side that ranks 345th in the country in opponent 3PT% (37.5%).
Miami vs Duke same-game parlay
Duke team total Over 85.5
Cooper Flagg Over 1.5 threes made
Matthew Cleveland Over 14.5 points
Miami had been somewhat respectable on offense until losing point guard Nijel Pack to a foot injury in mid-December. Pack was leading the team in scoring (13.9 ppg) and assists per game (3.9) — and in his absence — senior forward Matthew Cleveland has stepped up.
Cleveland has reached 16+ points in each of the last six games while dropping more than 20 points in four of those contests. He should take enough shots against Duke to eclipse his O/U of 14.5.
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Miami vs Duke odds
Miami vs Duke live odds
Miami vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Miami +23 | Duke -23
- Moneyline: Miami +2,500 | Duke -10,000
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Miami vs Duke betting trend to know
The Hurricanes are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Duke.
How to watch Miami vs Duke
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Miami vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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