The No. 20 ranked Purdue Boilermakers welcome the UCLA Bruins to Mackey Arena in NCAA hoops action tonight.
Although the Boilermakers are always tough at home, my UCLA vs Purdue predictions believe the Bruins have what it takes to at least keep things close.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on Friday, February 28.
UCLA vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
UCLA +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers are on a four-game losing streak and have failed to cover in their last three contests. Their latest matchup saw them go ice-cold in the second half to lose 73-58 to Indiana on the road.
Meanwhile, the UCLA Bruins have struggled when traveling East, but they finally managed to win a game away from the West Coast when they edged the Hoosiers in Bloomington two weeks ago. Since then, they've played twice at home, losing 64-61 to Minnesota and beating Ohio State 69-61.
While both teams have been inconsistent lately, there are a few reasons to take UCLA with the points here.
Purdue is 103rd in the country in turnover rate (15.8%) and has struggled against teams that apply pressure. In games against Marquette and Texas A&M, the Boilermakers had a turnover rate above 22%, while they had an ugly 32.6% TO rate against Penn State.
With point guard Braden Smith turning the ball over six times in back-to-back games, expect shaky backcourt play against a UCLA squad that ranks first among all high-major schools in opponent turnover rate (22.9%).
On the other end of the floor, the Boilermakers are 338th in opponent 2-point percentage (56%), with that number ticking up to 58.8% against conference foes. They are 350th at defending the rim per ShotQualityBets and allow a whopping 70.4 FG% at the rim.
That's bad news against the Bruins, who do most of their offensive work inside the arc and shoot a sizzling 69.5% at the rim. The Bruins also boast better depth than the Boilermakers, and that should help them keep things within two possessions.
UCLA vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
UCLA +5.5
Braden Smith Under 7.5 assists
Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 threes
Smith has dropped fewer than 7.5 dimes in six of his last 11 contests. With the Bruins boasting a Top-20 defense and playing at an extremely slow pace, Smith will have a tough time eclipsing tonight's O/U/.
One area where the Boilermakers could have success is from long range. UCLA is outside the Top 300 in Open 3 Rate per ShotQualityBets and has struggled to contain outside shooters against teams that shoot well from the perimeter.
In games against Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, and USC, the Bruins have allowed a combined 40.1 3PT%. Loyer has knocked down at least a pair of threes in six consecutive games, and he shoots a sizzling 50.7% from deep at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Purdue odds
UCLA vs Purdue live odds
UCLA vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: UCLA +5.5 | Purdue -5.5
- Moneyline: UCLA +170 | Purdue -250
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 | Under 140.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCLA vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Bruins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Purdue.
How to watch UCLA vs Purdue
| Location | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
UCLA vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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