The first matchup between the UConn Huskies and Marquette Golden Eagles was promoted like an all-time 12-round heavyweight bout.
However, the “Battle of Big East Beasts” ended in a first-round knockout, with the Huskies coming out swinging and flattening their rivals by 28 points.
Wednesday night gives us the rematch, with the college basketball odds setting the Golden Eagles as home underdogs. Marquette backs into this showdown off a shorthanded loss to Creighton, which just so happens to be the last team to take down Connecticut.
The Huskies have won the two games following that loss and are the betting favorites for the 29th time in their 30 games so far this season, boasting a 5-3 against-the-spread record as road chalk.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this Big East bash and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for UConn at Marquette on March 6.
UConn vs Marquette best odds
UConn vs Marquette picks and predictions
Losing guard Tyler Kolek is a tough blow to the Marquette Golden Eagles with the Big East tournament looming. They are without their second-leading scorer and top playmaker, taking almost eight assists per game out of the box score.
With Kolek out, head coach Shaka Smart plugged Chase Ross into the starting lineup and leaned into junior guard Kam Jones to help facilitate the offense. He played all 40 minutes and finished with 23 points and three assists versus the Bluejays.
Jones is more often an option to score (leads MU with 16.1 ppg), and is not a primary ball handler. But given the shakeup in the backcourt and the immensity of this clash with the UConn Huskies, Smart will look to Jones to anchor the offense.
His role as a distributor is magnified considering Ross missed practice earlier this week due to illness and isn’t 100% entering Wednesday. And without Kolek on the floor, the UConn defense will focus its efforts of taking the ball out of Jones’ hands, prompting him to be more of a passer.
On the season, Jones averages just 2.1 assists per game. His three dimes versus Creighton were just the seventh time in 17 conference games he’s recorded three or more assists. That average is reflected in his player prop for assists tonight, with the Over/Under at 2.5.
However, some books are adjusting for his expanded role as a ball handler and others are not. You can find Over 2.5 assists as high as -120 with the price tag as low as +105 at other shops.
My best bet: Kam Jones Over 2.5 assists (+105 at bet365)
UConn vs Marquette same-game parlay
Kam Jones Over 2.5 assists
Under 152.5
UConn moneyline
With the Golden Eagles backcourt running thin, Jones will be handling the ball a lot more and prompting more than two assists tonight.
Two of the better defenses in the country clash in what should feel like a tournament tilt. Game models call for fewer than 153 points.
The Huskies won’t blow out MU like it did last time, but models call for a UConn win on the road.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
UConn vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis
The Huskies opened as low as 4.5-point road favorites and that spread has swelled to as high as -5.5, as of late Wednesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 58% of picks are laying the points with the road chalk.
Connecticut absolutely crushed Marquette in their matchup in Storrs on February 17, with the Huskies jumping out to an early lead and never looking back en route to an 81-53 final score as 7.5-point home favorites.
They did get tripped up at Creighton in the next game but have since corrected course with one-sided wins over Villanova and Seton Hall (the other team to beat UConn), eclipsing sizable spreads of -15.5 and -11.5 in the process.
Connecticut is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six outings, playing the best two-way basketball in the country. The Huskies are No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Big East and own a 5-4 ATS record in true road games this season, coming up against a mountain of chalk as a visitor.
Marquette rebounded from that beatdown from UConn with three home blowouts, laying waste to spreads of -11.5, -11.5, and -27.5 before losing at Creighton on the weekend. It took the floor without Kolek, who is expected to sit the final regular season games due to an oblique injury.
Much like the Huskies, the Golden Eagles are great on both ends of the floor and sit No. 3 in offensive and defensive efficiency in the Big East. Marquette is especially sound at home, boasting an 11-4 ATS record as a host with an average margin of almost +19 per homestand.
Marquette is expected to have big man Oso Ighodaro on the court tonight after he missed the road game at Creighton due to the flu. Head coach Shaka Smart said the 6-foot-11 senior, who is averaging 14 points and seven rebounds, practiced this week ahead of the clash with UConn.
Tonight’s Over/Under total opened at 152.5 points and has dipped to as low as 150.5 at some sportsbooks. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of picks are taking the Over.
The Huskies are 15-13-1 Over/Under on the season, including 5-4 O/U on the road. Connecticut has split Over and Under results in its last four games, with the meeting with Marquette staying below the closing total of 148.5 points.
The Golden Eagles own a 12-17 O/U count with a 7-8 O/U tally inside Fiserv Forum. Marquette has topped the total in three of its last four games, including scoring 75 points in the loss to the Bluejays without Kolek and Ighodaro in action.
UConn vs Marquette betting trend to know
Connecticut has won outright on the moneyline in 26 of its last 29 games (+21.60 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Marquette.
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UConn vs Marquette game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
UConn vs Marquette key injuries
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