After a humbling double-digit loss to unranked Miami, the No. 16-ranked Clemson Tigers now face their toughest test of the season, as the No. 8-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels come to town on Saturday.
UNC is looking for its third straight win in ACC play and fourth straight overall. They’re plenty battle-tested, as Clemson will be the sixth Top-20 team they will have faced through 14 games.
Still, oddsmakers may be a little cautious, leaving the Heels as 1.5-point road underdogs in the college basketball odds.
Who should you be backing in this ACC showdown? Read my college basketball picks for UNC vs. Clemson below to find out.
UNC vs Clemson best odds
UNC vs Clemson picks and predictions
PJ Hall may be the leading scorer for the Clemson Tigers, but riding shotgun and making it look smooth is senior transfer Joseph Girard III.
He’s as much to blame as every other Clemson player against Miami in their 95-82 loss last time out — as a 6-point halftime lead was vaporized by a 60-point second frame from the Hurricanes.
Those are defensive problems that need to get cleaned up, but offensively, Girard led the team in scoring for a second straight game, with all starters putting up double digits.
Where he’s making his mark most is from beyond the arc, and I believe we’ve caught an inefficiency among the books that you should jump on.
Most sites have his 3-point make total set at 2.5, and you’re getting plus-money odds if you take the Over. Girard just had his third straight game of at least four three-point makes, going 4-for-10 as part of his 18-point performance.
His consistency is uncanny: wipe out the first two games of his Clemson career — where he was just getting up to speed — and JGIII has hit at least three 3-pointers in nine of his last 11 games.
On the year, he’s hitting at a career-best 45.2% clip — which ranks in the Top 10 in the nation. He’s also matching his career-best mark of 7.2 attempts per contest, which he did last year at Syracuse.
UNC doesn’t exactly protect the arc, as they give up 25.2 attempts from distance per game, which ranks 313th in college hoops. Against the ranked teams on their schedule, four players have drilled at least three moneyballs over five games.
While with Syracuse last year, Girard went 4-for-9 against UNC, scoring 18 points in an eventual 72-68 loss. Bottom line: Girard should get ample looks at cracking that number on Sunday.
My best bet: Joseph Girard III Over 2.5 made threes (+100 at DraftKings)
UNC vs Clemson same-game parlay
Joseph Girard III over 2.5 made threes
RJ Davis Over 19.5 points
Over 159.5
While we’re looking at Girard staying his consistent self, I'm targeting Carolina’s RJ Davis — the team’s leading scorer — to bounce back.
UNC found itself in a rockfight last game against the Pitt Panthers, eventually carving out a 70-57 win. As a team, the Tar Heels shot just 36.5% from the field, including a woeful 5-for-17 from 3-point range.
Davis was not immune to the offensive struggles, as he shot 6-for-16 for 15 points. That broke a streak of eight straight games topping 20 points — five of those games against ranked opponents. Perhaps the most glaring stat was Davis taking zero free throws, something he hasn’t done since the season opener.
Clemson’s adjusted defensive efficiency is 50th at KenPom, though they’ve just been lit on fire. They also sent the Canes to the line 15 times.
On the year, the defense is allowing 19.4 free throw attempts per game, which ranks 226th. If Davis is in attack mode, he should find his way back to the line and rack up some freebies.
We’ll wrap this with the total, and this is strictly numbers. UNC is the 20th-scoring team in basketball, putting up 85 points per game. Clemson’s scoring defense allows 71.2 per contest.
Flipped around, and Clemson drops 82.2 per game, which is 44th, while Carolina surrenders 72 points per game, which doesn’t crack the Top 200. Two teams that can fill it up and play OK defense? I’ll hit that Over all day.
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UNC vs Clemson spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has been as low as a point but has extended at least a half-point, with a few sites putting UNC as long as +2.5. On the year, the Heels are just 7-6 against the spread.
Clemson’s loss to Miami broke a streak of four straight covers. However, the Canes are 8-5 ATS this season.
Just one site we saw had the total cracking the 160-point plateau. Once as low as 156.5 points, most books have settled in at 159.5.
Carolina has seen the Over hit in eight of 13 games, while the Over is 9-4 in Clemson games.
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UNC vs Clemson betting trend to know
The Over has hit in eight of the last 10 meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for UNC vs. Clemson.
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UNC vs Clemson game info
| Location: | Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, January 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
UNC vs Clemson key injuries
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