A trip to San Antonio and a shot at the national title are on the line when the No. 1 Florida Gators tangle with the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Gators took a bite out of Maryland with a convincing win in the Sweet 16, while the Red Raiders needed an improbable comeback and overtime to escape Arkansas.
That wasn’t the first slow start for TTU during the NCAA Tournament, and it has my Florida vs. Texas Tech predictions looking at a certain derivative market.
Here are my best March Madness picks for Saturday, March 29.
Who will win Texas Tech vs Florida?
My bracket had Texas Tech getting past Maryland in the Elite Eight. That pairing is obviously blown up.
The Red Raiders have played with fire throughout the tournament, and UF’s depth and unrelenting offense will get the Gators to the Final Four.
Texas Tech vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Florida - Double Result (-150 at bet365)
The Florida Gators opened as 6.5-point favorites against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and it looks like that spread is trending upward after Thursday’s Sweet 16 results. Outright odds have UF priced as a -290 moneyline favorite, but I believe there’s a better way to wager on the Gators based on a bad habit forming for TTU.
Texas Tech overcame a horrendous start to its matchup with Arkansas, with dismal outside shooting putting TTU behind quickly. Kudos to the Razorbacks’ defense, but the Hogs struggled to execute on offense, and questionable coaching decisions opened the door for the Texas Tech comeback.
Slow starts have been an issue for the Red Raiders in the NCAA Tournament. They led UNC Wilmington by only four points at the break in the Round of 64 and held a 37-30 edge over Drake after 20 minutes in the Round of 32. Last night, Texas Tech managed only 31 points in the first half.
Those opening frames featured significant runs by TTU’s opponents. The Razorbacks boasted a 15-2 streak, the Bulldogs put up a 9-0 run, and the Seahawks closed its first half with the Red Raiders on a 15-3 flurry.
Those first-half lapses on both ends came against offenses that were far less dangerous than Florida. The Red Raiders have had issues showing up in the first half all season, rating 119th in 1H defensive rating and allowing almost 33 first-half points per game (109th). The Gators averaged more than 40 first-half points on the season and get points from everywhere, making them extremely tough to gameplan for.
Florida had six players score double figures versus a Maryland defense ranked No. 6 in the country — even with standout big Alex Condon playing only 14 minutes due to a sprained ankle (he returned and finished with six points). The Gators hung 40 points on the Terps in the first half despite turning the ball over 13 times.
They've led after the first half in 27 of their last 36 games and enter the Elite Eight with the 15th highest 1H offensive rating and 23rd best 1H defensive rating, panning out to a net rating of +22.4 in the initial 20 minutes (No. 7 in the country).
Things won’t get much prettier for TTU in the second half. The Red Raiders are coming off a very physical game against Arkansas’s big defenders and will be running low on gas after that overtime period, with a possible letdown looming after coming back from 16 points down on Thursday.
Texas Tech’s rotation only runs seven players deep, and with shooter Chance McMillian likely still sidelined for the quarterfinals, TTU’s legs will get heavier as this game progresses. That won’t help its piss-poor shooting, which is making only 25% of their shots from deep in the tournament.
As good as Florida is in the first half, it’s even better at closing out contests. The Gators own the second-best net rating in the final 20 minutes (+24.0), sitting No. 1 in 2H offensive rating in Div-I and scoring more than 45 points in the final frame.
Game models all give Florida the nod as the outright winner in this Elite Eight pairing, with margins ranging from one to six points. But given TTU’s first-half gaffes and UF’s depth and defense, the Gators will lead at half and win this game.
Texas Tech vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida 1H moneyline & Florida moneyline
Rueben Chinyelu Over 6.5 points
Walter Clayton 3+ assists
Texas Tech has been slow out of the blocks on defense and has watched NCAA foes go on extended runs in the first half.
Florida is a killer at closing out games. The Gators are the No. 1 2H offense, and their depth wears down TTU.
Chinyelu is a beast at the rim, and with Condon nursing a bum ankle, he could get extra minutes.
Clayton can attack TTU in isolation and drive-and-dish once he gets inside. He’s averaging more than four assists per game.
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Texas Tech vs Florida odds
Texas Tech vs Florida live odds
Texas Tech vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Texas Tech +6.5 (-110) | Florida -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech +235 | Florida -290
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-110) | Under 157 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas Tech vs Florida betting trend to know
Texas Tech has only covered the 1H spread in 15 of its last 35 games (-7.00 Units / -17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Florida.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Florida
| Region | West |
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 3-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Texas Tech vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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