The Houston Cougars’ defense tightened its clamps late against Purdue in Friday night’s Sweet Sixteen matchup, holding the Boilermakers to just five points in the final four minutes, dooming them to the Under on their team total by only 1.5 points.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers’ offense is ever so slightly worse than Purdue’s, and it operates at an even slower pace.
Thus, my Tennessee vs. Houston predictions see no reason to stray from what works, trusting the Cougars to continue to do what they do best on Sunday.
Find out more in my March Madness picks for March 30, with tip from Lucas Oil Stadium scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET.
Who will win Tennessee vs Houston?
Some may disagree, but yours truly maintains a stout conviction that Houston will win its 17th straight game.
The Cougars have not lost in regulation since the second game of the season. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, a roster familiarity that has to be considered in stakes like these. Of the six Volunteers that log the majority of Tennessee’s minutes, only three were in Knoxville last year. Five of Houston’s six primary players played under Kelvin Sampson last season.
There is a comfort level in that group, one that does not worry in tight games. That showed more than ever in the final minute against Purdue. When the Boilermakers tied the game at 60, some worry may have made sense. Instead, the Cougars calmly executed a game-winning inbounds play.
Their 16-game winning streak has included five wins by two or fewer buckets, a notable change after starting the season 0-3 in those moments, going 7-1 since.
Tennessee vs Houston prediction
My best bet: Tennessee team total Under 60.5 (-120 at bet365)
If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result, then is the definition of sanity doing the same thing and expecting the same result? Because if so, this is as sane as betting gets.
In Houston’s last five games, opponents have hit the Under on their team totals in four of them. Those were all tournament games, a stretch starting after the Cougars were comical 17.5-point favorites against Colorado to open the Big 12 Tournament.
Including the last three regular-season games in which the Cougars were favored by less than nine points, that trend extends to seven of the last eight contests when Houston actually needed to focus. As was said before the Sweet Sixteen meeting with Purdue, “When Houston is not bored, its defense is something to marvel at.”
There was a reason the best 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten went just 8-of-27 from deep. There was a reason Purdue shot five percentage points lower inside the arc than it did in Big Ten play this year. There was a reason it found two fewer offensive rebounds than would usually have been expected.
That reason was the Houston defense. Over and over again.
Tennessee shoots far worse than Purdue. It turns over the ball more often. Its reliance on offensive rebounds will be mitigated by the Cougars’ tenacity on the glass.
Houston’s defense is nearly a bucket better per 100 possessions, once adjusting for opponents, than the No. 2 defense in the country (Maryland) since Feb. 15, per barttorvik.com. Consider how much praise St. John’s got for its defense. Houston’s is 3.9 points better per 100 possessions since Feb. 15.
This defense is underappreciated.
The only team to top its team total in a game of consequence against Houston in the last six weeks was Gonzaga, when the Bulldogs got desperate trailing by 12 points with 11 minutes to go. They could operate at a quick tempo. Tennessee cannot, preferring a tempo that ranks among the 20 slowest in the country.
If this Elite Eight game is a race to 60, the Volunteers won’t even get there.
Tennessee vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee team total Under 60.5
Igor Milicic Under 7.5 points
Houston moneyline
Houston keeps the ball from getting inside. That is the key to its defense. Opponents struggle to drive, and they struggle to enter the ball via pass. It has led to opponents attempting 3-pointers on 42.6% of their field goal attempts since Feb. 15.
Tennessee center Igor Milicic takes threes on occasion, but most of his buckets come on the inside. He simply will not get the ball against Houston, and the Cougars’ excellent rebounding should cut down on any second-chance points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Houston odds
Tennessee vs Houston live odds
Tennessee vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +3.5 | Houston -3.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +135 | Houston -160
- Over/Under: Over 123.5 | Under 123.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Houston betting trend to know
In those aforementioned eight games of consequence and competitive verve from Houston since Feb. 15, seven have gone Under their totals — the exception again being Gonzaga — and those seven fell short of their totals by an average of 7.8 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Houston.
How to watch Tennessee vs Houston
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, 3-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Tennessee vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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