USC vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans, Wildcats Play to the Under

Not long ago, Arizona (15-3) was a trendy National Championship futures bet. 

Fast forward to mid-January and there are numerous questions about the Wildcats’ legitimacy as a contender not only in the NCAA Tournament but inside the Pac-12 as well.

Tommy Lloyd’s squad looks to stem the bleeding after dropping two of its last three games, although a difficult challenge awaits as USC (13-5) heads to the McKale Center.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Arizona below.

USC vs Arizona best odds

USC vs Arizona picks and predictions

Just how good is Arizona this season? That’s the question left on everyone’s mind after the once fearsome Wildcats appeared utterly mortal in the new year. Pac-12 play hasn’t gone as planned, as a narrow escape over Washington to start 2023 was followed by a 13-point loss to Washington State in a game in which the Wildcats were 12-point favorites. 

That was followed by a win over Oregon State, which is hardly impressive considering the Beavers rank 219th in KenPom. A blowout 87-68 loss in Eugene this past Saturday cast further doubt about the potency of this version of Arizona. After being in the Top 10 for seven straight weeks, the Wildcats have slipped to No. 11 in this week’s AP Poll.

They’ve also fallen to 18th overall in KenPom and a distant sixth place in the conference standings with a 4-3 record. This is a huge week in which Lloyd’s squad will look to answer the bell in tests against the two L.A. schools, who have a combined 29-7 record overall. 

USC checks in at third in the Pac-12 at 5-2 and after dropping back-to-back games against Washington State and UCLA to begin the new year, Enfield’s squad responded nicely by sweeping the two mountain schools — Colorado and Utah — at home (2-0 ATS).

The Trojans have the best field goal defense in the Pac-12 at 36.9%, forcing difficult looks from opponents thanks to their combination of length and tenacity. However, they don’t have a ton of firepower offensively, ranking 69th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and the 3-point shooting has been non-existent this season, as the Trojans make just 5.6 threes per game (332nd nationally) at a rate of 31.9% (288th). 

The market has taken note of USC’s offensive struggles and defensive prowess, as the total opened at 153.5 before quickly dropping to 151.5 at most locations. There’s still a 152 available at the time of this writing, and I’m going to grab the Under at that number before it’s gone, as I believe the money moving this number is in the right spot. 

The Wildcats are 5-1 to the Under in their last six home games and I expect Lloyd’s squad to have a renewed defensive effort after an embarrassing showing on that side of the ball during the Oregon trip. This is still a Top-20 team in the country with high ambitions during a wide-open year in which there aren’t many dominant teams around the country.

This seems like a good spot for the Wildcats to get back on track and USC is notably better defensively than offensively, so I see this game-flow working toward the Under. 

My best bet: Under 152 (-110 at PointsBet)

USC vs Arizona spread analysis

Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite at most locations as of the time of this writing, although -7 is also available. 

USC has been a covering machine, going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and the Trojans have been very profitable when matched up against winning teams, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record. 

Enfield’s squad ranks 58th overall in KenPom, checking in at 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency as noted earlier and 46th defensively. They have two lead guards in leading scorer Boogie Ellis (15.7 ppg) and Drew Peterson, who leads the team in rebounding and assists.

The team welcomed back five-star, 7-foot-1 freshman Vincent Iwuchukwu to the lineup a week ago in his return from the lineup after suffering a cardiac arrest during a summer practice. His minutes will still be limited after playing just five minutes against Colorado and six against Utah. 

Arizona ranks 18th in KenPom and is outstanding on one side of the ball while being mediocre-at-best on the other. The Wildcats are seventh on offense and just 85th defensively. 

Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four home games, so the trends certainly do not fancy the Wildcats tonight. They’re the superior team and are playing at home in a massive game, so I still lean toward their side against the spread. 

USC vs Arizona Over/Under analysis

USC has been slightly profitable at 10-8 to the Under this season, while Arizona is deadlocked at 9-9 on totals. 

The Trojans don’t operate with much matter of urgency offensively, ranking 173rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. USC has a severe lack of 3-point shooting, something that perhaps should have been both anticipated and addressed by Enfield through the transfer portal this offseason. \

The Trojans live within the arc offensively, ranking 56th nationally with 20.6 made 2-point field goals per game. Arizona may not be great defensively, but they have plenty of size down low to throw in front of the rim and rank a respectable 73rd nationally with a 41.1% field goal defense. 

The Under is 4-1 in the Trojans’ last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600, so games tend to stay lower-scoring in matchups like this one.

If there’s a spot USC’s vaunted defense is vulnerable, it’s from 3-point land. The Trojans rank 160th in defending the arc, a spot Arizona will look to take advantage of in order to get its ice-cold guards back on track.

Still, relying on Kerr Kriisa (38% from the field) and Courtney Ramey (38.4% from the field) isn’t bankable. I’m on the Under. 

USC vs Arizona betting trend to know

Arizona is 5-0 to the Under in its last six home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for USC vs. Arizona.

USC vs Arizona game info

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