Seeding implications in the PAC-12 tournament are on the line as the USC Trojans (25-5) head across town to Pauley Pavilion to battle with the crosstown rival UCLA Bruins (22-6).
During his tenure with the Trojans, coach Andy Enfield sports a perfect 5-0 record against Mick Cronin and the Bruins. USC defeated UCLA 67-64 in the first matchup despite the absence of star big man Isaiah Mobley. Will the Bruins finally be able to notch a win over their rivals on Saturday?
Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins on Saturday, March 5 to find out.
USC vs UCLA odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
UCLA is expected to win by a wide margin at home, opening as 7.5-point favorites. The line has remained steady as of Saturday morning, although any status updates on the status of UCLA star Johnny Juzang could cause a swing throughout the day. The total remains steady at the opener of 136.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
USC vs UCLA predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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USC vs UCLA game info
• Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
USC at UCLA betting preview
Injuries
USC: Isaiah White G (Questionable).
UCLA: Johnny Juzang G (Questionable), Mac Etienne F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 10-1 in the Bruins' last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAAB betting trends for USC vs UCLA. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. UCLA.
USC vs UCLA picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
UCLA isn’t treating this like just another game. Players have gone so far as to call this a “life or death” game as they refuse to lose yet again to their crosstown rivals. The Trojans and Andy Enfield have had their number, winning all five contests against Mick Cronin and company since the two began coaching at their respective schools. USC surprisingly won the first matchup despite Isaiah Mobley missing the contest due to injury.
The Trojans — one of the tallest teams in the country — typically dominate the glass but emerged victorious despite finishing -1 in rebounding margin. UCLA lost as 4.5-point favorites in that game despite USC being without its best player, and that’s with the Trojans failing to control the game in their preferred method.
A big reason USC triumphed in the first matchup is thanks to the heroic efforts of Drew Peterson, who erupted for 27 points, 12 boards, four dimes, and five blocks. It’s fair to say a repeat of that performance is highly unlikely Saturday at Pauley Pavilion. Even with Peterson expected to fall back down to earth, the Trojans will be boosted by the presence of Mobley this time around.
UCLA had a much-needed four days of rest after facing a hellacious schedule. Star player and leading scorer Johnny Juzang (17.0 points per game) is considered questionable for this matchup with a 50% chance of playing.
That’s massive news to follow when considering this spread, as Juzang has been the go-to guy all year long for the Bruins. It would certainly be a tall task to ask them to cover a 7.5-point spread in a rivalry game without his services.
This betting line seems off considering Enfield’s track record against the Trojans, Mobley’s return to the fold, Juzang’s health, and the results of the first matchup. The betting market is buying into UCLA’s laser-focus for this game in front of what’s anticipated to be a significant home advantage thanks to a fired-up crowd in Pasadena.
This seems like a good spot for UCLA to finally nab a win over USC, and the players certainly seem fired up to do so. That being said, many factors are pointing in the underdog’s direction, and this seems like too many points in a rivalry game between two evenly matched teams.
Prediction: USC +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams play solid defense. The Trojans allow only 65.7 points per game while having the 14th best field goal defense in the country. They have significant length to alter shots and rebound extremely well. The Bruins, meanwhile, allow only 64.2 points per game while ranking 12th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
This game should be played at a slow pace as both teams rank outside the Top 200 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. USC checks in at 229th, while UCLA is down at 258th. Don’t expect either team to play with much sense of urgency. Both teams are sound at taking care of the ball. UCLA has the fifth-lowest turnovers per game in the country, while USC is 81st in limiting giveaways.
All signs point to the Under in this rivalry game.
Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)
Best bet
USC and UCLA both play quality defense, take care of the ball, and slow things down offensively. This is expected to be a raucous crowd at Pauley Pavilion, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both teams come out a little tight.
The Under provides a ton of value in this spot, so that’s the direction we’ll be headed for today’s best bet in Pac-12 action.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-110)
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