Qualification for the Big Ten Tournament is on the line as the Iowa Hawkeyes (15-13, 6-11 Big Ten) visit the Northwestern Wildcats (15-13, 6-11 Big Ten) on Friday night.
Despite being shorthanded, Northwestern hasn’t been affected and is coming off back-to-back road wins.
See why I’m backing the Wildcats with my college basketball picks and Iowa vs. Northwestern predictions on Friday, February 27.
Iowa vs Northwestern prediction
My best bet
Northwestern -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Despite being shorthanded, the Northwestern Wildcats are playing some of their best ball of the season lately. Missing their second (Broks Barnhizer at 17.1 ppg) and third (Jalen Leach at 14.3 ppg) leading scorers, Chris Collins’ squad has rattled off two straight wins.
They locked up defensively in a 70-49 win at Ohio State and then shot 49% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range in a 75-63 win at Minnesota. Both road victories were crucial to the Wildcats’ chances of making it to the Big Ten Tournament (top 15 teams in the standings secure a bid).
The Iowa Hawkeyes, tied at 6-11 in the conference standings, also need a win on Friday. However, their play hasn’t inspired confidence lately as they’ve dropped six of their last eight games.
Fran McCaffery’s squad has been allergic to covering spreads as well, going 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games. They’ve put forth many poor performances on the road, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference road games.
The Hawkeyes have long struggled on the defensive end under McCaffery and that issue has been especially pronounced lately. Since February 1, they rank 203rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (BartTorvik).
The adage that “defense travels” prevails here, but in an alternate sense — Iowa doesn’t play defense, and that’s exacerbated on the road. Northwestern ranks 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency in February and has been a much more well-rounded team than its Friday night dance partner, even despite the injuries.
Taking a ton of mid-range shots generally isn’t a wise gameplan, but the Wildcats have been proficient at knocking down those looks (26th in mid-range field goal percentage per Haslametrics). Those shots should be readily available against a Hawkeyes defense ranking 202nd in mid-range attempt rate and 275th in mid-range defense.
I’ll back the home favorite.
Iowa vs Northwestern same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 150.5
Northwestern -4.5
Taking the Under in an Iowa game is always a risky proposition since it plays little to no defense, but hear me out.
Northwestern is missing two of its top scorers who combine for 31.4 ppg. That’s very difficult to replace. It’d be natural for the Wildcats to slow things down now that they’re shorthanded, and they weren’t exactly in a hurry to start (304th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo).
Iowa has also put the brakes on offensively, ranking 174th in adjusted tempo since the start of February (per BartTorvik). That’s not typical of a McCaffrey team, and the books have been slow to notice as the Hawkeyes are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 games.
An Under also correlates well with a Northwestern win as Collins’ squad has put the clamps on defensively lately and likely continues to try to do so to snare a spot in the Big Ten Tournament.
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Iowa vs Northwestern odds
Iowa vs Northwestern live odds
Iowa vs Northwestern opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +4 (-110) | Northwestern -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa +150 | Northwestern -180
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa vs Northwestern betting trend to know
Iowa is 1-6 ATS in its last seven away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Northwestern.
How to watch Iowa vs Northwestern
| Location | Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Iowa vs Northwestern key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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