The Kentucky Wildcats welcome back some key pieces tonight as they seek a win over the Oklahoma Sooners in an important SEC clash.
All signs point to the Wildcats getting two starting guards back, a big boost as they look to improve their resume. Meanwhile, the Sooners ended a five-game skid with a win over Mississippi State and need another big win to stay in the tournament field.
Amari Williams has been breaking out of late for the Wildcats, and my Kentucky vs Oklahoma predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, February 26, explain why that trend should continue.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma prediction
My best bet
Amari Williams Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma Sooners' interior defense has been a big problem since SEC play began. Conference foes are shooting 60.8% inside the paint against the Sooners, making nearly 53% of their shots inside the arc.
They’re also having problems rebounding while regularly sending opponents to the free-throw line. The Sooners rank second-worst in the SEC in free-throw rate in the defensive end and are allowing nearly one of every three missed shots to be claimed for a second-chance opportunity.
Those factors provide a perfect environment for Amari Williams to have another strong outing for the Kentucky Wildcats. The big man has scored in double-figures in six of his last seven games and has three straight outings of 17 or more points.
And while Lamont Butler's absence has seen him bringing the ball up the court, that’s not the only reason his usage rate has skyrocketed over the last 10. Williams is proving to be a true threat inside with his athleticism and soft touch near the rim, while also showing he can be problematic on the glass.
Williams has posted an offensive rebound rate of at least 17% in two of his last three games and has attempted 26 free throws in that span. He’s made 12 of his 15 attempts at the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the mid-range shot as well.
Kentucky has also been running more of its offense through the interior of late. The Wildcats rank just seventh in conference play in 3-point rate, but are making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc — the third-most in the conference.
Oklahoma has operated at the third-highest adjusted tempo in SEC play, one spot behind Kentucky. This contest should be an up-and-down affair, and that will allow Williams to run the floor and be a threat in transition as well as in the lob game. Even with Butler and Jaxson Robinson likely returning to action tonight, I’ll back Williams to clear 15 points again.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma same-game parlay (SGP)
Amari Williams Over 12.5 points
Brycen Goodine 2+ threes
Kentucky -2.5
Brycen Goodine is Oklahoma’s best outside shooter during conference play, knocking down nearly 50% of his attempts from outside the arc. He’s hit multiple attempts in three of his last four contests, and is facing a Kentucky defense ranked 357th in spacing according to ShotQuality.
With Butler and Robinson back in the mix, I love Kentucky to get just its third true road win of the season. The Wildcats have been in position to win other games of late, but have struggled in the final four minutes against ball pressure. With Butler’s poise and his defense on the perimeter, the Wildcats should close this one out and late free throws will push them past the spread.
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Kentucky vs Oklahoma odds
Kentucky vs Oklahoma live odds
Kentucky vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky -2 (-110) | Oklahoma +2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kentucky -140 | Oklahoma +120
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
Oklahoma has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Oklahoma.
How to watch Kentucky vs Oklahoma
| Location | Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Kentucky vs Oklahoma key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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