VCU vs Dayton Odds, Picks and Predictions: Elvis Takes Care of Business

The Atlantic 10 schedule comes to a close with the Dayton Flyers hosting the VCU Rams for a Friday night finale.

Virginia Commonwealth is clinging to a Top-4 spot in the A-10 but a loss to Dayton could send the Rams down the conference standings and take away a potential first-round bye in the A-10 tournament.

That’s a tall task for VCU, which faces a Flyers program that's undefeated at home. The Rams could also be down two key players with leading scorer Max Shulga and reserve guard Fats Billups listed as game-time decisions.

I dig into the college basketball odds for this regular season swan song and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for VCU vs. Dayton on Friday, March 8.

VCU vs Dayton best odds

VCU vs Dayton picks and predictions

The Dayton Flyers will make a run at the Atlantic 10 tournament title and hear their name on Selection Sunday. But the Flyers may have navigate the postseason without their starting point guard.

Sophomore Javon Bennett is nursing a thumb injury suffered in the loss at Loyola-Chicago last week and it doesn’t sound like he’ll be in action tonight — if that 2-point line moves is an indication.

Bennett, who told reporters that he’ll know if his season is over later in the week, was replaced by Kobe Elvis at point guard in Dayton’s win at Duquesne. The junior finished with 21 points and five assists in the road victory.

Elvis averages 3.6 assists on the season but has played a big role as a distributor lately, even before Bennett went down. He’s dished out five dimes in each of his last three games. 

Elvis’ player prop markets have his assist total for tonight at 3.5 Over/Under, a number that doesn’t reflect his altered role as the primary ball handler or his uptick in assists the past three games.

Tempering this total is the style of play expected in Dayton tonight. The last time Dayton and the VCU Rams clashed, they failed to crack 100 combined points on 37 made field goals — just 22 of which came on an assist. However, the Flyers are a force on offense at home. They average almost 78 points as a host with their assist-to-FGM rate ticking up to 61.5%.

Sportsbooks are offering the Over 3.5 assists on Elvis at plus-money, with the tastiest return at +110. Given his move to PG, there is solid value on him serving up four or more dimes for Dayton.

My best bet: Kobe Elvis Over 3.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

VCU vs Dayton same-game parlay

Kobe Elvis Over 3.5 assists

Dayton moneyline

Zeb Jackson Over 9.5 points

+350 at bet365

Elvis is the Flyers point guard tonight and his assist prop isn’t being adjusted enough to reflect that change in role with Bennett out.

Dayton hasn’t been a great bet in their own barn, so we’ll pass on the point spread and just take the Flyers to stay undefeated at home on the season.

With Shulga possibly sidelined, there are extra touches to go around. Jackson is averaging 11 points per game and has hit double-digits in three straight outings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

VCU vs Dayton spread and Over/Under analysis

Dayton opened as big as a 9.5-point home favorite but the Flyers have injury concerns of their own, with starting point guard Javon Bennett likely out of action Friday night. 

That’s knocked two points off the spread, bringing Dayton down to -7.5. According to Covers Consensus, 60% of early picks are taking the points with the Rams.

Virginia Commonwealth is stumbling at the wrong time, dropping its last two contests, including Tuesday’s home stand against Duquesne in which leading scorer Max Shulga sat out due to back spasms. 

His status as well as the health of reserve guard Fats Billups is up in the air tonight, with head coach Ryan Odom looking at the bigger picture. 

"The goal is to have them both for Brooklyn (A-10 tournament)", Odom told the media ahead of Friday’s game. 

The Rams won the last matchup with Dayton, scoring a 49-47 home win in a grinder of a game on February 9. That was just one of four losses for the Flyers in conference play — all of which have come on the road.

Dayton bounced back from a key loss at Loyola-Chicago with a one-sided drubbing of Saint Louis on the road earlier this week. The Flyers now return to the University of Dayton Arena, where they’re 14-0 SU but just 6-8 ATS on the season.

Tonight’s total opened at as high as 139 points but has trimmed to 137.5 due to injury concerns on both sides. Covers Consensus is showing 58% of early picks on the Over.

Dayton is 17-11 Over/Under on the season, including 8-5-1 O/U at home. The Flyers, who rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency in the A-10, have topped the total in five straight games and are 7-1-1 O/U in their last nine games overall — the lone Under being the 49-47 loss at VCU that stayed well below the closing number of 135 points.

Virginia Commonwealth is 14-16 O/U on the season with a 2-6 O/U count in true road games. The Rams snapped a three-game Over runs with the 69-59 loss to the Dukes on Tuesday, which finished Under the closing total of 137.5 points.

VCU vs Dayton betting trend to know

Dayton has cashed in for the moneyline in 16 games at home (+16 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for VCU vs. Dayton.

VCU vs Dayton game info

VCU vs Dayton key injuries

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