Villanova vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Huskies Cruise to Easy Conference Win at Home

The undefeated Connecticut Huskies will look to continue their unexpected early season run when they host the Villanova Wildcats in Hartford on tonight.

No. 2 UConn is now 13-0 on the season, despite beginning the season unranked in both major polls. Villanova (7-5) began much more slowly but has won five straight as it moves into its Big East schedule.

College basketball odds have the Huskies as a big favorite and they’ve hardly been challenged so far this season. Will Villanova be the first team to solve the UConn mystery? I’ll break it down in my free college basketball picks for Villanova vs. Connecticut on December 28.

Villanova vs UConn best odds

Villanova vs UConn picks and predictions

UConn faced its toughest challenge of the year from an unexpected source in its last outing. The Huskies last played on December 20 against a Georgetown team that came into the game with a 5-7 record, yet the Hoyas held a seven-point lead midway through the second half, threatening to hand UConn its first loss of the season.

The Huskies managed to come back and win 84-73 at home, keeping their undefeated season alive.

That 11-point victory was far from typical for the Huskies this year. With the exception of a 10-point win over Oklahoma State earlier this month, that was the closest game UConn has played this season. Even against some of its best opponents, Connecticut has easily won by double digits, beating Alabama by 15, Iowa State by 18, Florida by 21, and Butler by 22. 

Connecticut has had little trouble scoring, with junior forward Adama Sanogo (18.6 points per game) leading an offense that is scoring 83.6 ppg (18th in the nation). However, the real secret to the Huskies’ success is their defense, which is holding opponents to just 58.6 points a night — 12th-lowest in the nation — on just 38.1% shooting, including a paltry 27% from 3-point range.

While Villanova brings a balanced offense to the table, it isn’t a team that’s likely to break through the UConn defense. The Wildcats don’t shoot the ball well, making just 43.9% of their shots from the field, and they also don’t push the pace to get into shootouts, averaging just 71.6 points per game — third-worst in the Big East.

It’s easy to look at UConn’s last game against an unimpressive Georgetown squad and think that the Huskies are in for some tougher games against the Big East. Yet Connecticut played easily its worst game of the year for 30 minutes, then turned it on and still got a comfortable win. There’s no reason to expect the Huskies to play so poorly again, especially after a long break over Christmas. 

A 12-point spread looks daunting, especially when you consider that Villanova has won five straight, but the Wildcats haven’t played anyone in the same class as UConn during that stretch. Really, Villanova hasn’t played against anyone nearly this good all season long — I’m expecting the Huskies to march to victory yet again with a comfortable margin, covering the spread as they pull away in the second half.

My best bet: UConn -12 (-110)

Villanova vs UConn spread analysis

UConn opened tonight’s game as a 12-point favorite. Some books have since moved the line to 12.5, though Connecticut -12 is still the most common spread on the market as of early Wednesday.

Connecticut isn’t just 13-0: It has also been a monster against the spread this year. The Huskies are 11-1-1 ATS, while Villanova is just 4-8 against the number so far this season.

One of the reasons I’m skeptical of Villanova in this matchup is the fact that it has struggled against the same teams that UConn has easily beaten early this year. While the Huskies beat Oregon by 24 on the road, the Ducks beat Villanova by seven. Iowa State managed to beat Villanova in Philadelphia, while UConn beat the Cyclones by 18 at home.

Villanova should be better than this but has been struggling somewhat without senior guard Justin Moore. While Moore averaged 14.8 points per game last season, he has yet to play this year after tearing his right Achilles tendon in the Elite Eight this past spring.

As it stands right now, all the analysis of how these teams have played this season shows that UConn is just on a different level than Villanova, even after the Wildcats’ recent winning streak. Connecticut -12 might be a scary number, but the Huskies should win going away.

Villanova vs UConn Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 137.5, with a little downward movement since then and the most common Over/Under at sites is now 136.5.

Both of these teams play to around that total on average. However, UConn has shown the ability to score against just about everyone, provided that it doesn’t go out of its way to slow the game down to a crawl. 

Villanova may not be a run-and-gun style team, but it does like to play games in the 70s when win. The Wildcats may struggle to get to 70 points against an outstanding Connecticut defense, but they aren’t going to stifle the pace of the game like Butler did against UConn a couple of weeks ago.

I’m also convinced that Connecticut will be able to score against a Villanova team that hasn’t faced an offense this good all year. The Huskies can shoot from all over the court and Villanova allows teams to shoot well, including 34.9% from beyond the arc. 

I expect UConn to score plenty of points tonight, with Villanova contributing to the total as it tries to keep up with the high-powered Huskies offense. I'd lean towards the Over in what should be an entertaining, high-scoring affair.

Villanova vs UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. UConn.

Villanova vs UConn game info

Villanova vs UConn key injuries

Villanova: Angelo Brizzi G (Questionable), Justin Moore G (Out).
UConn: Samson Johnson F (Out).

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