The two-time defending national champion Connecticut Huskies will start their run in the Big East Tournament on Thursday night as they face the Villanova Wildcats in a quarterfinal showdown at Madison Square Garden.
These teams played a close, low-scoring game less than a month ago, and I’m expecting a similar battle tonight, which is why I’m taking the Under in my Villanova vs. UConn predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup between two of the most storied programs in the Big East in my free college basketball picks for Thursday, March 13.
Who will win Villanova vs UConn?
The two tough matchups between these teams in the regular season make this a fascinating matchup, but this isn’t the same UConn team that struggled earlier in the year. Now on a four-game winning streak and with Alex Karaban seemingly back to his normal self, the Huskies are primed for a deep run in this tournament. UConn should get the win tonight.
Villanova vs UConn prediction
My best bet: Under 134.5 (-110 at bet365)
On paper, this initially looks like a game that could result in big numbers on the scoreboard. The UConn Huskies and Villanova Wildcats are two of the best offensive teams in the Big East, and both feature capable scorers that can take over a game between Eric Dixon (23.5 ppg) for the Wildcats and a trio of 14 ppg scorers for the Huskies in Solo Ball, Liam McNeeley, and Alex Karaban. Both teams have also averaged totals of over 140 ppg this year.
So why hasn’t that played out in practice when these teams have matched up against each other? One major issue is pace of play. These two schools are among the slowest in Division I basketball nationally, and that effect is multiplied when two teams who want to take the air out of the ball play against each other. When the number of possessions goes down, so does the score.
We also have to give some minimal credit to these two defenses. While neither is elite, they aren’t the types of units that are going to get terribly exploited even by the talented weapons on the other side of the ball. Both hold opponents to under 43% shooting, a solid enough number.
The first game between these teams went to a total of 134 points, while a better UConn effort brought that total own to just 125 points in the rematch. This continues a trend we’ve seen between these teams for years now, as the Under has a 6-1 record in their last seven meetings overall. In a game that should have a deliberate pace and limited possessions, I’m taking the Under again tonight.
Villanova vs UConn same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 134.5
Connecticut -6.5
Alex Karaban Over 2.5 threes made
Along with taking the Under for tonight’s matchup, I’m also backing UConn on the spread. The Huskies are playing their best basketball of the year, and it’s worth noting that they beat Villanova by seven in their matchup last month. With Karaban shooting as expected again, this Connecticut team is well-balanced on both ends of the court and should have too much for Villanova to stay close enough to cover.
Speaking of Karaban, I’m also going to take the junior forward to hit Over 2.5 three-pointers tonight. That’s a relatively big number, but Karaban has hit three from deep in each of his last two outings, as well as three of his last five games. Early in the season, Karaban was a near lock to get that many shots in from deep, and he appears to be fully recovered from his February shooting slump, making this a great bet at a nice plus number to round out our SGP.
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Villanova vs UConn odds
Villanova vs UConn live odds
Villanova vs UConn opening odds
- Spread: Villanova +6.5 (-110) | UConn -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Villanova +230 | UConn -280
- Over/Under: Over 134.5 (-110) | Under 134.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Villanova vs UConn betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the last five games between Connecticut and Villanova. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs UConn.
How to watch Villanova vs UConn
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Villanova vs UConn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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