The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 7 seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the third round of the ACC Tournament on Thursday night.
The Tar Heels clobbered Boston College last night and will now try to knock off UVA and make a strong case for the selection committee.
Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring battle with college basketball odds opening with an Over/Under of 128.5 and the Cavaliers installed as 2.5-point faves. Here are my best college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Virginia on March 9.
Virginia vs North Carolina best odds
Virginia vs North Carolina picks and predictions
If you've been in a coma for the last decade, welcome to the modern era of basketball where teams live and die by the 3-ball.
The North Carolina Tar Heels made a surprise run to the National Championship Game last season thanks to their red-hot shooting from deep while the Virginia Cavaliers missed out on March Madness due in large part to their mediocre 32.3% shooting from the arc.
Fast forward to this season: the Cavaliers got off to a terrific start to their campaign and were shooting lights out from the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels were the biggest disappointment in the country and were ice-cold from beyond the arc. Well, both of those narratives have flipped around in recent weeks.
At the start of February, the Cavaliers were 14th in the country with 38.5% shooting from long range but that number has plummeted to just 28.9% since. On the other hand, just two weeks ago the Tar Heels were 340th in the country in 3-point percentage (30%) but have shot a sizzling 39.8% from long range in four games since. That includes a showdown with Virginia on February 25 when they went 10-22 from deep to beat the Cavs 71-63.
The Cavaliers defend well in most areas of the floor but haven't been great at guarding outside shooters. They rank 273rd in defensive efficiency against off-the-dribble 3-pointers, according to ShotQualityBets, and allow opponents to shoot 35% from beyond the arc in conference play.
Virginia's defense tends to double-team opposing bigs when they receive an entry pass. That creates opportunities to kick the ball out to the perimeter and find players cutting to the basket. North Carolina's Armando Bacot is one of the best big men in the country and always receives plenty of attention when he gets the ball down low.
If he can make quick decisions with the ball and the Tar Heels are able to knock down treys, they should be able to unlock this UVA defense again and take this game.
My best bet: North Carolina +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Virginia vs North Carolina spread analysis
The Tar Heels came out fired up in front of a friendly crowd at Greensboro Coliseum last night jumping out to an early lead and winning by a final score of 85-61. It was an impressive performance by the Tar Heels who had Bacot for just 18 minutes due to a rolled ankle and still shot a sizzling 55% from the floor while turning the ball over just six times.
Taking care of the ball has been a strength of this team all season with the Tar Heels 20th in the country in turnover rate (14.8%). They've also dominated on the glass ranking 21st in rebound rate thanks to Bacot, who led the ACC with 10.8 rebounds per game while adding 16.5 points per game on 55.2% shooting.
The Tar Heels put together a middling 11-9 record in conference play but have won four of their last five games including that previously mentioned victory against UVA. North Carolina failed to live up to preseason expectations but seems to be putting things together at the right time once again and another victory against UVA should book a ticket to the Big Dance.
Virginia is at No. 13 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll and tied Miami with the best record in the ACC at 15-5. The Cavaliers did stumble a bit down the stretch losing back-to-back contests on the road against Boston College and UNC but bounced back last week with victories against Clemson and Louisville.
The Cavaliers have an even lower turnover rate than UNC (sixth in the country at just 13.4%). This is a typical Tony Bennett-coached team that plays at a methodical pace, rarely turns the ball over, and smothers opponents on the defensive end of the floor.
The Cavaliers have regressed massively on offense. At the end of January, the Cavaliers were 24th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (112.9) according to Bart Torvik. In nine games since, that number has dropped to just 103.6.
Although the Cavaliers may have lost to UNC two weeks ago, they beat them 65-58 in Charlottesville back in January — albeit in a contest where Bacot was injured in the first few minutes.
Virginia vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis
The Tar Heels are 97th in the country in adjusted tempo but they do a poor job of pressuring opposing ball handlers so they'll allow Virginia to soak up the shot clock with the ball.
Bennett's teams always play at a snail's pace and this year's version is no different with UVA 360th in the country in adjusted tempo and averaging 19.4 seconds per possession.
The Tar Heels have really stepped up on defense lately and haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 66 points in their last five games, limiting foes to just 62.2 ppg over that span.
The Cavaliers have been playing lockdown defense all season and are eighth in the country in scoring defense against Div 1 foes (60.5 ppg), with that number ticking up only slightly to 61.7 ppg in conference play.
The Cavs are also having a tough time getting buckets lately. Although they're coming off a 75-point performance against an atrocious Louisville defense, they had averaged just 59.1 ppg in regulation during their previous seven contests.
Virginia vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. North Carolina.
Virginia vs North Carolina game info
| Conference: | ACC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
