Wagner vs Merrimack Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Warriors Win a Snoozer

The Northeast Conference Tournament finale pits two of the best defenses in the conference when the Wagner Seahawks and Merrimack Warriors do battle to book their place in the March Madness odds beginning next week. 

Merrimack opened as a heavy favorite on the conference tournament odds board, but Wagner might have a word with the oddsmakers as they’ve beaten the Warriors in two of their last three meetings.  

With March Madness ready to take off, can Wagner upset the regular season champs? Join me as I examine this Northeast Conference Tournament final matchup with free college basketball picks for Wagner vs. Merrimack on Tuesday, March 12.

Wagner vs Merrimack best odds

Wagner vs Merrimack picks and predictions

The Merrimack Warriors were tabbed by the preseason pundits to finish fourth, and surprised everyone by winning the Northeast Conference regular season title. The Wagner Seahawks were tabbed to finish fifth and wound up with the sixth best record in the Northeast. 

While one team outperformed their expectations, the other one didn’t but one thing both programs has in common is their elite defense, which should be on full display tonight. 

Tuesday night’s combatants split their season series; each holding serve at home. The respective stop units were the flex each team needed to win their two regular season meetings, as Wagner took the first January meeting by six points in a tilt reaching 136 points but were blown out of the Merrimack gymnasium 60-45 on Jan. 25.

Wagner forces 11 miscues per game, which they turn into 13.2 points per tilt with elite perimeter defenders and a robust interior defense. They allow the fewest points per tilt in the conference (62.6) yet owns a +1.3-scoring margin this season. The Seahawks snagged the second-most caroms, including a fifth-best 24.7 defensive boards per tilt.

Merrimack also plays elite defense. They snatch 10 steals per game and turn 16.4 turnovers into nearly 18 points. The Warriors have the second-best interior shooting defense and No. 1 three-point shooting unit in the conference. They block a third-best 3.7 shots per matchup while leading the conference with a nation’s ninth-most 10 steals per tilt.

Neither programs’ offense has fulfilled their potential this season — Wagner scores the second-fewest points in the conference (63.9) and Merrimack scores the conferences fifth-most points (69.9). Both offenses have shaky shooters and facing elite mid-major defenses that typically make bad shooters even worse will only magnify each finalists’ scoring woes.

Aside from the elite defense, something else these programs have in common is their offensives play at below-average tempos. Wagner is one of the slowest-playing programs nationally and while Merrimack does play faster, they are still below the D1 average tempo and that won’t help either offense much at all.

Finally, this matchup features two elite defenses that are exponentially better than each respective offense. Tonight’s tilt will be played at a snail’s pace between two programs that can’t shoot the basketball against two defenses that are as good as any mid-major program. Depending on turnovers and offensive caroms to eat on the offensive end of the floor can’t be much fun, and why Wagner games have ended 10-18-0 to the Under and Merrimack tilts finished 12-18-0 to the Under. 

Facing two elite stop units like those featured in tonight’s Northeast Conference tilt will be an uphill battle for each offense, and why tonight’s clash ends Under the number.

My best bet: Under 121.5 (-115 at BetRivers)

Wagner vs Merrimack same-game parlay

Under 121.5

Merrimack -7

+250 at BetRivers

Our simple two-leg same-game parlay card is a decent paying one, and it does correlate well with my best bet.

The team that won covered the spread in each of their last 10 meetings. Merrimack is 17-12-1 ATS this season and 9-6-1 ATS as the away team. Wagner is 13-15-0 ATS and 8-10-0 against the number as the away team and difficult to trust tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wagner vs Merrimack spread and Over/Under analysis

Merrimack opened as favorites by as many as -7.5 points at several shops, but that number is now unavailable except at FanDuel. Practically everyone else is -6.5 (-115) and that’s likely due to the fact the Warriors were 8-10-0 ATS this season against the Northeast Conference and probably because Wagner defeated Merrimack once already this season.

Wagner is 8-7-0 ATS as the underdog, 9-9-0 ATS against their conference foes, and has covered in both tourney tilts. Wagner +7.5 is still available at FanDuel, but you will pay -115 for the extra point.

The total opened at Over 119.5 (-115) and now sits anywhere from the 119.5 (-115) opening number and price at FanDuel to 121 (-115) at BetRivers. 

The reason for the movement on tonight’s total seems simple; 119.5 points is a low number, and the public loves a high-scoring affair. The problem with playing the Over at any number on the board is that neither team can shoot a lick and depend on too many triples they don’t drain very often. 

Not to mention how darn good these perimeter defenses are, as both programs rank Top 50 nationally in 3-point percentage allowed. Tonight’s snail’s pace and the jitters of playing for a conference title won’t help get this one Over any of the numbers on the board. 

Wagner vs Merrimack betting trend to know

Wagner has hit the Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI) and Merrimack has hit the Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wagner vs. Merrimack.

Wagner vs Merrimack game info

Wagner vs Merrimack key injuries

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