Wisconsin vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Badgers' Defensive Woes Strike Again

The No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers were off to a promising 11-2 start, which included 3-0 in Big Ten play, but in the last week, things have turned the other way with the Badgers dropping important games to Illinois and Michigan State.

They will look to return to form against the Indiana Hoosiers, who have also been struggling as of late. After an 8-1 start to the season, Mike Woodson's team has dropped five of the last seven and rides a  three-game losing streak into Saturday afternoon's affair.

Which Big Ten hopeful will reverse their luck on Saturday? Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Indiana on Saturday, January 14th.

Wisconsin vs Indiana best odds

Wisconsin vs Indiana picks and predictions

Every season, the Wisconsin Badgers are seemingly half-dismissed, and yet every season Greg Gard turns in a team that overachieves those suppressed expectations. In his eight seasons, the Badgers have missed the tournament just once.

One constant for them has been their strength defensively. Last year, Wisconsin ranked 34th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite that impressive ranking, that was actually Gard's worst finish defensively in four seasons after finishing 15th in 2021, 17th in ‘20, and fourth in ‘19.

Wisconsin heads into Saturday ranked 34th this season in that same metric but have taken a hit in that department after back-to-back questionable defensive efforts. The Badgers dropped their last two games, allowing 79 to Illinois last Saturday and 69 to Michigan State on Tuesday. 

The most glaring issue has been their perimeter defense, allowing 10 of 19 to the Illini and 7 of 13 to the Spartans. In the last week (an admittedly small sample), the Badgers ranked fifth-worst in the nation in 3-point percentage allowed.

Whether or not Gard can clean up those deficiencies for Saturday's game could ultimately be the deciding factor. Wisconsin ranked 57th in the nation in 3-point percentage allowed prior to those two games, but Indiana's 37.8% from deep ranks 42nd in the nation and it has shot an even better 39.2% in conference play thus far.

Additionally, the Hoosiers are not highly reliant on 3-point volume, ranking 305th in attempts per game (18.7). They find ways to score inside often and efficiently, ranking 40th in 2-point volume and 28th in 2-point percentage.

On the other side of the ball, they grind down opponents with proficiency at the glass (45th in defensive rebounding) and that may be where Indiana finds another way to open the game up, as Wisconsin ranks 341st in the nation in offensive rebounding (and 334th in total rebounding).

My best bet: Indiana -4 (-110 at DraftKings)

Wisconsin vs Indiana spread analysis

The Hoosiers opened as -4.5 favorites and some books have begun to move to a flat -4.

The Badgers have managed an 8-7 record against the spread this year, good for a 53.3% cover rate. Wisconsin has failed to cover in five straight now after starting the season 8-4 against the number.

The Badgers are 4-2 against the spread as underdogs this year, but those two losses have come in the last week against Illinois (+7.5) and Michigan State (+2.0). In those four wins against the spread as an underdog, they have won three straight up.

Indiana is 6-9-1 against the spread this year (40.0%) after failing to cover in seven straight. The Hoosiers are 5-4 as home favorites, but they have covered just once in four tries as single-digit favorites.

One thing worth noting for Indiana backers is that although Indiana ranks 25th in adjusted KenPom offensive efficiency, Wisconsin has managed its defensive proficiency despite facing the 14th toughest schedule of offenses according to KenPom. If the Badgers come out with answers on defense, the entire game will hinge on Mike Woodson's ability to adapt.

Wisconsin vs Indiana Over/Under analysis

Wisconsin, despite its defensive proficiency and reputation, has played 9-6 to the Over, which includes a perfect 3-0 Over record on the road. The Badgers have played in just two games with totals at or above Saturday's number and had gone Over in both games, by an average of 13 points in those contests.

The Hoosiers are an even better 11-5 to the Over (68.8%), tied for the 23rd highest Over rate in the country. They have gone Over in seven of their last eight and in three straight, going over the total by an astounding 19.3 points in those seven Overs.

The total will largely hinge on two things: Wisconsin's ability to defend the interior and the pace at which they play. The Badgers rank 328th in possessions per game, a perfect illustration of the type of basketball Greg Gard prefers his team to play.

Indiana ranks 76th in possessions per game and 34th in points per game, demonstrating the combination of efficiency and pace it’s capable of.

Wisconsin vs Indiana betting trend to know

The Badgers have gone 3-0 to the Over on the road and Indiana has gone Over the total in seven of its last eight. Find more College basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Wisconsin State.

Wisconsin vs Indiana game info

Wisconsin vs Indiana key injuries

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