It wouldn’t be Rivalry Week without the Iron Bowl, and while there are reasons to scoff, that could easily backfire on us. The Auburn Tigers got caught looking ahead last week, but we should all know better than to doubt the home team in the college football odds, even when the Alabama Crimson Tide are the opponent.
Will Hugh Freeze and Auburn redeem themselves after last week’s demoralizing loss? It is Freeze's first Iron Bowl, and that alone catches our eye in our free college football picks for Alabama vs. Auburn on Saturday, November 25.
Alabama vs Auburn best odds
Alabama vs Auburn picks and predictions
Perhaps it is a reflection of the Alabama Crimson Tide’s offensive uneasiness, or maybe it is how Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees likes to use apparent first-quarter failures to set up clear second-half successes.
Whatever the reasoning, this has become a Tide trend in 2023: Fade Alabama in first halves against quality opposition.
The Tide are just 5-6 against the spread in first halves this season, and three of those games were against teams with losing records. Nick Saban's club has also trailed at halftime in four of those contests, and it's important to remember that Alabama has been favored in every game this season.
Should we consider the Auburn Tigers quality opposition? Ranked No. 38 in the most recent SP+ numbers, the Tigers are nearly as close to Tennessee (No. 22) as they are to Arkansas (No. 53) and much closer than to Mississippi State (No. 66).
Before looking past New Mexico State last week, the Tigers had won three straight games, both outright and against the spread. Before that, they lost to Mississippi by just a touchdown, missing out on beating the spread by a hook.
Freeze was putting together a strong close to his first season back in the SEC before botching last week. That mistake alone is reason to bet on Auburn before halftime this weekend, readily assuming Auburn was already gearing up for the Iron Bowl, a mentality that should reap the most rewards out the gates in front of the home crowd.
Alabama’s repeated slow starts only reinforce that likelihood.
My best bet: Auburn first half +7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Alabama vs Auburn same-game parlay
Auburn first half +7.5
First half Over 24.5
Under 47.5
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Betting this first half Over is an attempt at doubling down on both Hugh Freeze’s mistake last week and Alabama’s habits of late. If Freeze really did overlook New Mexico State, one must wonder what he spent two weeks scheming up. He is an offensive mind by trade, so that work should show itself on the scoreboard.
The Tide have also let teams score early this season. The last three first halves against quality opponents — Texas A&M, Tennessee, and LSU — averaged 32 points before the break, and all three cleared this number.
However, betting the full-game Under puts some faith in Nick Saban junking things up to focus on getting a win. He will not care if this game gets ugly, and Bama doesn't need a blowout to impress the Playoff selection committee.
Combining a first-half Over with a full-game Under serves to escalate the payout on this same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with Alabama at -15 on Sunday afternoon before eventually falling to -13.5. Such confidence in Auburn further underscores the thought of dismissing last week’s failure against New Mexico State. If anything, that loss will further motivate the Tigers this week.
Meanwhile, the total opened at 47.5 and almost immediately jumped to 49 before dipping all the way back down by Thursday.
Alabama vs Auburn betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the first half Over in eight of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Auburn.
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Alabama vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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